Thursday, June 21, 2012

Team China

The gymnastics mood in China couldn't be more different than their mood in the run-up to the Beijing Olympics. The defending champions are certainly not favored to repeat their gold medal winning success this year, and could even be shut out of the team medals entirely in the face of a Romanian resurgence.

The team as it stands right now is made up of 4 locks- Sui Liu, Huang Qiushuang, Yao Jinnan and Deng Linlin, plus either Juang Yuyuan, He Kexin, or Tan Sixin.

The individual hopes for this team are certainly alive and well- Sui Lu is the defending world beam champion, and a world silver medalist on floor, while Yao Jinnan is one of the strongest AA Chinese gymnasts of all time, with strengths on beam and floor as well. Deng Linlin is a veteran from Beijing and a former world beam champion, and Huang Qiushuang is another AAer with great bars and beam, when she deigns to hit.

However, that fifth team member slot is giving China as many problems as Russia- they have to choose between a 1 event specialist or an all-arounder. He Kexin has held on since Beijing, through a growth spurt and two successive World Championship disappointments, and still has the capacity to bring in a big bars score, something which, irony of ironies, China actually needs with their current 4 members. Sui Lu doesn't perform bars, and Deng Linlin has never been a particularly strong bar worker either. Yuyuan has a decent set, but it's fairly low-scoring by Chinese standards, and both she and Sixin have had inconsistencies on this event in the past.

My guess is that China will ultimately take Kexin and make Yuyuan the alternate. Sixin is a gorgeous but unpredictable gymnast, and China would be smart to stick with Yuyuan's experience and more solid performance record.

China will also most likely be relying heavily on Jinnan's performance as a team- I don't see a scenario where she doesn't compete all 4 events in TF. Qiushuang will most likely performing 3 pieces, unless Deng Linlin's floor is back to her Beijing standards. She has a well-deserved reputation for being one of the most inconsistent senior gymnasts performing today, and could therefore have either an enormously positive or negative effect on the team total.

TF Predictions:

VT: Linlin, Jinnan, Qiushuang
UB: Jinnan, Qiushuang, Kexin
BB: Linlin, Jinnan, Lu
FX: Qiushuang/Linlin, Lu, Jinnan

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