Saturday, June 30, 2012

Trials Day One

I have to say, the USA WAG squad did look human after last night's competition. They are most certainly the favorites heading into the team final in London, but there were certainly a number of nervous athletes on the floor last night. Let's talk about whose stock is up, down, or holding steady after the first night of Trials.

UP: 

Elizabeth Price: Beating Ross for the fourth AA spot and hitting four for four routines was absolutely what Price needed to do to stay in the Olympic conversation. She needs to put in a similar performance on Sunday, and if a couple of the other athletes have shaky outings on Day 2 as well, her potential contributions to this team will be even harder for the selectors to ignore.

Jordyn Wieber: Wieber was the other athlete without any major concerns last night. I thought her bars were overscored and her beam routine competition still gives me hives, but she is handling the pressure extremely well in the run-up to the games. She has really grown into her floor routine in particular and is still a favorite for the all around gold.

Alicia Sacramone: Girl has her DTY back! Even if she doesn't make the team, her physical recovery after her Achilles tendon has been really impressive. She's completely earned an alternate slot, if not a spot on the team.

DOWN:

Kyla Ross: If she is selected, Ross is going to London as a bars/beam gymnast, yet she did throw another Amanar in competition with disastrous results. That vault is a serious knee injury waiting to happen, never mind the fact that she crashed it. She has a lovely DTY with great execution, and she really needs to stick with that in the run-up to the Olympics in order to prevent herself becoming the next Mariya Livchikova, Julie Croket or Aliya Mustafina. Her vaulting woes, plus a less than secure beam routine, was not the way Kyla was hoping to perform yesterday.

McKayla Maroney: While she had a good outing on floor (if a bit overscored) and her usual great vaulting, a fall of bars and beam while Elizabeth Price is going four for four is not going to do her any favors. I've been wanting her to drop the pretense of being an all-around gymnast for ages, and if that is what it takes for her to be more consistent on floor, then she needs to make it happen.


WOGA: Remember back in 2009, when NBC was talking about a possible WOGA 3 peat for the AA crown in 2012? What a difference a couple years have made. I think the bloom is really going to be off the WOGA rose after this Olympic cycle and the way Nastia and Rebecca's comebacks have been mismanaged. For Nastia, it's simply down to time- she's not fit enough to perform a full bar routine that will send her to the Olympics. Had she started her comeback a year earlier, it might be a different story.

For Rebecca, of course, she has a beam routine that she can't hit outside of a training gym. There is no shame in making adjustments to a routine after a major injury, look at Aliya's double tuck off beam, Elena Prodonova becoming an expert front-tumbler after a wrist injury, etc., and after her 2011 knee injury, Rebecca and her coaches could have made some adjustments to her program, not least changing up an extremely difficult dismount that puts stress on even the healthiest knees, and that she had consistency problems with even before her injury. If she had a consistent routine, she could be challenging Kyla Ross for the beam/bars slot on the team, but she doesn't. Thus, her Olympic chances end.

HOLDING STEADY:

Gabrielle Douglas: Gabby had a couple shaky moments on bars and beam, but hit one of the best Amanars she's done in competition since, well, ever, and nailed her floor routine cold, beating Wieber and Raisman on that apparatus. All in all, she hasn't been able to beat Jordyn since the American Cup, but she hasn't had a complete meltdown like PacRims or last year's Visas either.

Aly Raisman: While she had a couple uncharacteristic blips on beam and floor, they were the first blips we've seen in ages from Aly. She even hit a decent Amanar, though I still fear for her knees. It would take way more than an out of bounds and a slightly less impressive beam set to keep her off the team at this stage.

Everyone else: Aside from Elizabeth Price and the proverbial Big 5, no one else made a strong enough case to make the team last night. Even Alicia, bless her, hasn't quite done enough to push herself out of the alternate slot barring an injury to one of the frontrunners.

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