More so than any apparatus, the lineup for the beam final could go a variety of different ways, simply because it is the most unpredictable. Depending on what happens in prelims, we could see a number of different lineups, especially from nations with a couple of viable candidates.
The one nation whose lineup is essentially locked is Romania. Larisa Iordache and Catalina Ponor, for my money, are the two gymnasts most likely to take gold because they combine huge difficulty with unshakable consistency. Ponor in particular has been an absolute beast on beam since her return, and I'm picturing her just pipping her teammate for the gold, especially if she pulls out her full twisting double dismount.
I've always been a huge Catalina fan, and her comeback has been sheer joy to watch- if she was to cap it off to a return to the top of the podium, it would be a fitting climax. Iordache is certainly capable of reaching the top of the podium as well- she's got a massive D score, and if she can put all her connections together, she'll be very tough to top.
China's lineup, on the other hand, is much more up in the air. They should easily qualify 2 competitors to the final, but who they are will completely depend on quals. Sui Lu should be considered a lock, but she has been more inconsistent on beam than on floor. Her complete and utter meltdown at the Test Event certainly shook up the perception that she got her shit together in Tokyo, but she is the defending World Champion, with a very difficult routine when she gets it right.
Deng Linlin is China's most consistent performer- as a multiple World medalist, she's earned her beam stripes, and is capable of scoring in the low 15s. She could easily be the second Chinese finalist, but she'll have to battle it out with Yao Jinnan, who was 2nd in Tokyo, but is a bit more inconsistent. She won't have forgotten that she could have been a World AA gold medalist had she not fallen off beam. It's also possible that Quishuang will sneak in there, but her routine is really reliant on connection bonuses that she doesn't always complete, and she'd need a bit of help from her teammates to make the final.
Russia as well should qualify 2 competitors to the beam final, and like China they have multiple contenders for these spots. However, they could just as easily qualify 1 or 0- such is the level of Russian inconsistency on beam at times.
Mustafina's easily Russia's most consistent beam performer in London, though her difficulty is a bit lower than Grishina and Komova- her recent routines have been out of a 6.1-6.3, but the girl does not fall off or wobble. She has been sticking her double tuck solidly in true Soviet fashion off beam and has all her skills back, and consistency means a lot on this apparatus where it's usually in such short supply.
I'd love to see Grishina make this final, as she will most likely get shut out of bars by the 2 per country rule, and she can be just exquisite on beam- extension, connections, originality, and beautiful choreo:
However, she falls. A lot. Remember this heart-breaker?
If you can't stay on the beam, all that elegance and extension still won't get you a medal.
Komova is Russia's other beam contender. Here she is at the Russian Cup:
Killer dismount, but other than that, wobble city. With rocks like Ponor, Iordache and Linlin in the running, those wobbles are just not going to cut it. She is absolutely capable of a more solid routine:
However, like Grishina, you never know which version of Komova is going to show up to play.
The USA could also qualify two gymnasts to the final- Ross, Wieber, Raisman and Douglas could all be in the running. Raisman and Douglas have the highest difficulty, but Ross and Wieber have the best execution. It may come down to who makes their connections best on the day of qualifications- Ross, Douglas and Wieber all have a lot of connections in their routine that they're prone to missing. Douglas is definitely the most inconsistent of the bunch, while Raisman is the most consistent with the worst execution. I'd pick Raisman and Wieber, the two most solid competitors, to beat their less experienced teammates to the punch here.
Outside of the Big 4 nations, there are some outstanding individuals with a shot of making beam finals. Lauren Mitchell has high difficulty and original combinations, and she'll be looking to redeem herself after not making beam finals in Tokyo, or at the Beijing Olympics. Carlotta Ferlitto is usually good for a beam final spot- she doesn't have the highest difficulty score, but she is consistent. The Japanese have produced some lovely beam work in recent years from Tanaka and Tsurumi.
And can we pour one out for the lovely and talented Peng Peng Lee, who should be leading the Canadian team and should be challenging for a beam finals place? Damn you, knee injuries.
In terms of medalists, I really do think the Romanians have the top two spots locked up if they hit. The battle will be for bronze, and I'm predicting the seasoned competitor in Deng Linlin will top her compatriot Sui Lu, as well as the slightly less difficult routine of Wieber and the poor execution of Raisman.
Predicted Lineup:
Sui Lu
Deng Linlin
Catalina Ponor
Larisa Iordache
Jordyn Wieber
Aly Raisman
Aliya Mustafina
Anastasia Grishina
Predicted Medals:
Gold: Catalina Ponor
Silver: Larisa Iordache
Bronze: Deng Linlin
If I ruled the world:
Gold: Catalina Ponor
Silver: Anastasia Grishina
Bronze: Aliya Mustafina/Larisa Iordache
The one nation whose lineup is essentially locked is Romania. Larisa Iordache and Catalina Ponor, for my money, are the two gymnasts most likely to take gold because they combine huge difficulty with unshakable consistency. Ponor in particular has been an absolute beast on beam since her return, and I'm picturing her just pipping her teammate for the gold, especially if she pulls out her full twisting double dismount.
China's lineup, on the other hand, is much more up in the air. They should easily qualify 2 competitors to the final, but who they are will completely depend on quals. Sui Lu should be considered a lock, but she has been more inconsistent on beam than on floor. Her complete and utter meltdown at the Test Event certainly shook up the perception that she got her shit together in Tokyo, but she is the defending World Champion, with a very difficult routine when she gets it right.
Deng Linlin is China's most consistent performer- as a multiple World medalist, she's earned her beam stripes, and is capable of scoring in the low 15s. She could easily be the second Chinese finalist, but she'll have to battle it out with Yao Jinnan, who was 2nd in Tokyo, but is a bit more inconsistent. She won't have forgotten that she could have been a World AA gold medalist had she not fallen off beam. It's also possible that Quishuang will sneak in there, but her routine is really reliant on connection bonuses that she doesn't always complete, and she'd need a bit of help from her teammates to make the final.
Russia as well should qualify 2 competitors to the beam final, and like China they have multiple contenders for these spots. However, they could just as easily qualify 1 or 0- such is the level of Russian inconsistency on beam at times.
Mustafina's easily Russia's most consistent beam performer in London, though her difficulty is a bit lower than Grishina and Komova- her recent routines have been out of a 6.1-6.3, but the girl does not fall off or wobble. She has been sticking her double tuck solidly in true Soviet fashion off beam and has all her skills back, and consistency means a lot on this apparatus where it's usually in such short supply.
I'd love to see Grishina make this final, as she will most likely get shut out of bars by the 2 per country rule, and she can be just exquisite on beam- extension, connections, originality, and beautiful choreo:
Komova is Russia's other beam contender. Here she is at the Russian Cup:
The USA could also qualify two gymnasts to the final- Ross, Wieber, Raisman and Douglas could all be in the running. Raisman and Douglas have the highest difficulty, but Ross and Wieber have the best execution. It may come down to who makes their connections best on the day of qualifications- Ross, Douglas and Wieber all have a lot of connections in their routine that they're prone to missing. Douglas is definitely the most inconsistent of the bunch, while Raisman is the most consistent with the worst execution. I'd pick Raisman and Wieber, the two most solid competitors, to beat their less experienced teammates to the punch here.
Outside of the Big 4 nations, there are some outstanding individuals with a shot of making beam finals. Lauren Mitchell has high difficulty and original combinations, and she'll be looking to redeem herself after not making beam finals in Tokyo, or at the Beijing Olympics. Carlotta Ferlitto is usually good for a beam final spot- she doesn't have the highest difficulty score, but she is consistent. The Japanese have produced some lovely beam work in recent years from Tanaka and Tsurumi.
And can we pour one out for the lovely and talented Peng Peng Lee, who should be leading the Canadian team and should be challenging for a beam finals place? Damn you, knee injuries.
Predicted Lineup:
Sui Lu
Deng Linlin
Catalina Ponor
Larisa Iordache
Jordyn Wieber
Aly Raisman
Aliya Mustafina
Anastasia Grishina
Predicted Medals:
Gold: Catalina Ponor
Silver: Larisa Iordache
Bronze: Deng Linlin
If I ruled the world:
Gold: Catalina Ponor
Silver: Anastasia Grishina
Bronze: Aliya Mustafina/Larisa Iordache
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