The list of Olympic floor champions contains some of the sport's all time greats: Korbut, Comaneci, Silivas, Milosovici, and Podkopayeva are just a couple of the illustrious names you'll find. The Europeans have completely owned this event at the Olympics, with Romania being the dominant power in recent years, winning 5 of the last 7 gold medals.
So, who are the major players this year?
First, we have the defending world champion, Ksenia Afanasyeva. If she can pull out another performance like her Tokyo finals masterclass, she should be well in the mix, but her health and fitness has seemed in question all season. Plus, of course, there is her frustrating habit of inconsistency across competitions. However, for my money there's almost no one out there who can match her combination of super difficult tumbling (double layout, whip to triple twist), great execution and complex choreo and dance.
If another Russian makes the finals, I would expect it to be Anastasia Grishina. Her presence and execution on floor, when she puts it all together, is simply superb. Remember this gem (when she was still a junior)?
A nagging leg injury may keep her from being at her best, but the Olympic final NEEDS this kind of class to balance out one of the other likely competitors.
This is, of course, Aly Raisman of the USA, who scored a ludicrous 15.8 on floor at the US Olympic Trials. Raisman has the highest difficulty score in the world presently at 6.5 (according to The All Around's recent rankings). That first pass is killer, but her presence, choreo, and "dance" elements are frankly abysmal- it's this lack of style, toepoint, extension, and, well, any kind of charisma, that gives American gymnastics a bad name. However, as we all know, Raiman hasn't missed a routine in ages, so she'll make the final. If the judges do their job, she shouldn't win gold, even with an advantage on difficulty. A medal though is by no means out of the question, but if she was the first American to win gold on floor, I for one will throw my TV out the window.
Jordyn Wieber is also usually good for a floor final berth, but she and Gabby Douglas both have a 6.2 difficulty score- obviously only one can make the final. Both competitors have taken a few steps out of bounds on floor in international competition, so hitting solidly in qualifications will be absolutely key. I think the smart money would be on Wieber, who has a slight edge in execution, not to mention less annoying music.
Romania also is going to suffer from the "two per country" rule. Sandra Izbasa is of course the defending Olympic Champion, Larisa Iordache is the European Champion, and Catalina Ponor won gold in 2004, and that doesn't even mention the delightful Diana Bulimar, who would have a great shot at a floor final berth if she competed for another team.
Iordache has a 6.4 difficulty score and enough spunk and bounce for about 5 gymnasts- if she can clean up the landing on her second pass (it almost looks like she could throw another half or full twist into it, she has so much energy!) she is going to be very hard to beat. Ponor has the edge on Izbasa for difficulty, but Izbasa has better execution- she's one of the few gymnasts who can make leaping out of her tumbling passes non-awful. Like the Americans, I think Romania has one lock in Iordache, plus whoever does better in quals.
Lauren Mitchell, though she's lost a bit of her spark, still has one of the hardest routines in the world. Her floor music has never grown on me, but I was SO tired of her routine when she won Worlds in 2010 that any change was an upgrade. She had a rough time in Tokyo, but her difficulty should keep her in the mix here.
Vanessa Ferrari, too, has had an up and down couple of years, but has regained most of her difficulty on floor, and has definitely matured as a performer since her debut in 2007. After her disappointments in Beijing, it would be great to see her make an Olympic final here. Below is my favorite Ferrari performance on floor:
Victoria Moors is Canada's best hope of making an event final- she has a competitive D score (though an added .1 or so wouldn't hurt) and lots of personality- she makes Assassin's Tango seem fresh and new.
Finally, there's Sui Lu from China, who was narrowly defeated by Afanasyeva in Tokyo. She had a 6.2 difficulty score in 2011, and I would think she'll have upgraded a bit since then, though the Internet is failing me in finding any information on said upgrades. Having won bronze and silver at the world level, could a gold be next? Can she battle the Olympic ghosts of China past on floor (looking at you, Mo Huilan and Cheng Fei)? Hell, can she conquer her own ghosts of spectacular implosion at the Olympic Test Event in the same venue?
I see Romania continuing their domination on this piece, but not with Izbasa defending her title- Iordache has a few tenths of difficulty on her, and they're similarly matched on execution. It is possible that fatigue could have set in for Larisa, who will be working AA in quals, the TF, AND the AA, but let's be real- this is Romania we're talking about. She will have trained for this. She'll be ready.
The runner up slot is a tossup, and while my heart says Afanasyeva, my head says Lu. I also think that Raisman will sneak into the medals in 3rd, like she did in Tokyo. That difficulty score will not be denied, frantic arm-waving and flexed feet be damned.
Final Lineup Prediction:
Afanasyeva
Grishina
Wieber
Raisman
Mitchell
Izbasa
Iordache
Lu
Medal Prediction:
Gold: Iordache
Silver: Lu
Bronze: Raisman
If I ruled the world:
Gold: Afanasyeva
Silver: Grishina
Bronze: Mariya Livichikova (Yeah yeah, I know she won't be there. This is why this category is called "If I ruled the world.")
So, who are the major players this year?
First, we have the defending world champion, Ksenia Afanasyeva. If she can pull out another performance like her Tokyo finals masterclass, she should be well in the mix, but her health and fitness has seemed in question all season. Plus, of course, there is her frustrating habit of inconsistency across competitions. However, for my money there's almost no one out there who can match her combination of super difficult tumbling (double layout, whip to triple twist), great execution and complex choreo and dance.
If another Russian makes the finals, I would expect it to be Anastasia Grishina. Her presence and execution on floor, when she puts it all together, is simply superb. Remember this gem (when she was still a junior)?
A nagging leg injury may keep her from being at her best, but the Olympic final NEEDS this kind of class to balance out one of the other likely competitors.
This is, of course, Aly Raisman of the USA, who scored a ludicrous 15.8 on floor at the US Olympic Trials. Raisman has the highest difficulty score in the world presently at 6.5 (according to The All Around's recent rankings). That first pass is killer, but her presence, choreo, and "dance" elements are frankly abysmal- it's this lack of style, toepoint, extension, and, well, any kind of charisma, that gives American gymnastics a bad name. However, as we all know, Raiman hasn't missed a routine in ages, so she'll make the final. If the judges do their job, she shouldn't win gold, even with an advantage on difficulty. A medal though is by no means out of the question, but if she was the first American to win gold on floor, I for one will throw my TV out the window.
Jordyn Wieber is also usually good for a floor final berth, but she and Gabby Douglas both have a 6.2 difficulty score- obviously only one can make the final. Both competitors have taken a few steps out of bounds on floor in international competition, so hitting solidly in qualifications will be absolutely key. I think the smart money would be on Wieber, who has a slight edge in execution, not to mention less annoying music.
Romania also is going to suffer from the "two per country" rule. Sandra Izbasa is of course the defending Olympic Champion, Larisa Iordache is the European Champion, and Catalina Ponor won gold in 2004, and that doesn't even mention the delightful Diana Bulimar, who would have a great shot at a floor final berth if she competed for another team.
Iordache has a 6.4 difficulty score and enough spunk and bounce for about 5 gymnasts- if she can clean up the landing on her second pass (it almost looks like she could throw another half or full twist into it, she has so much energy!) she is going to be very hard to beat. Ponor has the edge on Izbasa for difficulty, but Izbasa has better execution- she's one of the few gymnasts who can make leaping out of her tumbling passes non-awful. Like the Americans, I think Romania has one lock in Iordache, plus whoever does better in quals.
Lauren Mitchell, though she's lost a bit of her spark, still has one of the hardest routines in the world. Her floor music has never grown on me, but I was SO tired of her routine when she won Worlds in 2010 that any change was an upgrade. She had a rough time in Tokyo, but her difficulty should keep her in the mix here.
Vanessa Ferrari, too, has had an up and down couple of years, but has regained most of her difficulty on floor, and has definitely matured as a performer since her debut in 2007. After her disappointments in Beijing, it would be great to see her make an Olympic final here. Below is my favorite Ferrari performance on floor:
Victoria Moors is Canada's best hope of making an event final- she has a competitive D score (though an added .1 or so wouldn't hurt) and lots of personality- she makes Assassin's Tango seem fresh and new.
Finally, there's Sui Lu from China, who was narrowly defeated by Afanasyeva in Tokyo. She had a 6.2 difficulty score in 2011, and I would think she'll have upgraded a bit since then, though the Internet is failing me in finding any information on said upgrades. Having won bronze and silver at the world level, could a gold be next? Can she battle the Olympic ghosts of China past on floor (looking at you, Mo Huilan and Cheng Fei)? Hell, can she conquer her own ghosts of spectacular implosion at the Olympic Test Event in the same venue?
I see Romania continuing their domination on this piece, but not with Izbasa defending her title- Iordache has a few tenths of difficulty on her, and they're similarly matched on execution. It is possible that fatigue could have set in for Larisa, who will be working AA in quals, the TF, AND the AA, but let's be real- this is Romania we're talking about. She will have trained for this. She'll be ready.
The runner up slot is a tossup, and while my heart says Afanasyeva, my head says Lu. I also think that Raisman will sneak into the medals in 3rd, like she did in Tokyo. That difficulty score will not be denied, frantic arm-waving and flexed feet be damned.
Final Lineup Prediction:
Afanasyeva
Grishina
Wieber
Raisman
Mitchell
Izbasa
Iordache
Lu
Medal Prediction:
Gold: Iordache
Silver: Lu
Bronze: Raisman
If I ruled the world:
Gold: Afanasyeva
Silver: Grishina
Bronze: Mariya Livichikova (Yeah yeah, I know she won't be there. This is why this category is called "If I ruled the world.")
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