The all-around competition this Olympics has the potential to be one of the all-time classics- or if not quite that outstanding, at least a return to the multifaceted and deep competition we were treated to in 1996. 2008 was pretty much a head-to-head between Liukin and Johnson, 2004 was a yawner of a competition with perhaps the dullest AA champion of all time, and 2000 was marred by The Vault Controversy and The Karpenko Disaster, among other things.
This quad, for the first time since 2000, there are at least 7-8 gymnasts with a real shot of winning an AA medal, including the gold. Having this many viable medal contenders is going to make for a nail biting competition, where, just like in 1996, putting a single foot wrong could take you out of the medal hunt entirely.
So, who are the main players in this drama? Here's who I'm picturing as the top 8 AA qualifiers:
Yao Jinnan, China
Huang Qiushuang, China
Larisa Iordache, Romania
Sandra Izbasa, Romania
Viktoria Komova, Russia
Aliya Mustafina, Russia
Jordyn Wieber, USA
Gabrielle Douglas, USA
While the event finals will no doubt see lots of athletes from less prominent gymnastics nations, the AA will be dominated by the Big 4, as it was in 2008, when the top 8 finishers were all Big 4 athletes. This isn't to say that there won't be some great athletes on the floor from other countries, like Vanessa Ferrari, Kristina Vaculik, and Elisabeth Seitz- it's just that no one else has shown the difficulty and execution necessary to knock one of these contenders out of their spots... if they hit.
The question of "if they hit" is something that could possibly alter the AA gymnasts from Russia and the USA, both of whom have 3 gymnasts who will almost certainly do the AA in qualifications. Raisman and Grishina haven't quite got the difficulty of their compatriots, but they could still sneak in. Raisman is a hitter (outside of bars in the AA), and Douglas and Wieber are probably feeling much more pressure to make the final than her, which could give Raisman a slight edge. Grishina's overall fitness is still a bit uncertain after the Russian Cup, but she is more than worthy of an AA slot should Komova or Mustafina have rough outings.
In terms of strengths on particular apparatuses, the picture looks like this:
Vault: Wieber, Douglas, Komova for sure. Probably Iordache, Mustafina and maybe Qiushuang (although I can see her being a Juang Yuyuan repeat on vault), and Izbasa if she throws her 6.1.
Bars: Komova and Mustafina have the biggest edge here, followed by Douglas and the Chinese gymnasts.
Beam: Iordache and Jinnan are the class of the field here. The Russians have the potential for brilliance, the Americans are usually solid but can be nervy.
Floor: Wieber, Iordache, and Izbasa are the big guns on floor. Douglas can hit this routine cold (Day 1 of Trials) or botch the dance elements and landings (Day 2 of Trials). It hasn't been a great piece for the Russians as of late. Jinnan has beautiful execution but not the huge difficulty others have.
The two gymnasts with the most strengths, according to this breakdown, are Iordache and Douglas, providing Iordache does in fact vault an Amanar as training reports suggest. However, when you put their mental toughness side by side, there's no comparison- Iordache comes out on top easily.
If I was to break this field into "Headgame or no headgame", it would look like this:
Headgame: Wieber, Iordache, Mustafina, Izbasa
No headgame: Qiushuang, Douglas
Who the hell knows?: Komova, Jinnan
Wieber and Mustafina are battle-tested, and Mustafina in particular is going to be out for redemption after her injury. The fact that not a lot of people are picking her for a medal could be the best thing that's ever happened to her, providing she can survive vault. Wieber is facing considerably more pressure as the defending World AA champion, but she's dealt with it all season quite well. The Romanians are the most psychologically solid team on Earth, as ever. Izbasa won't get near a medal without major mistakes from at least 4 other top competitors, so the pressure's really off for her, and Iordache is insanely reliable.
Qiushuang, Amanar or not, has yet to prove her mettle in a major international AA competition. Douglas has been so relentlessly hyped by the media here in the States, but she is still a wild-card in my book. She's almost Russian or Chinese in her ability to effortlessly hit one competition and fall apart the next. Her performances in qualifications and the TF could give us a bit more insight into how she's dealing with the pressure of being a serious AA medal candidate.
Komova has put in amazing AA performances before, at the YOG and in the Worlds qualifications (Remember how she beat Wieber there with a DTY? Not enough people do). Then there were the 2011 Worlds AA finals, and the 2011 World beam finals, and the 2012 Euro beam finals. See a pattern here? If she can hit beam she is so in it to win it...but it hasn't happened for a while.
Jinnan is the strongest AAer China's had since Mo Huilan, and seems to have her mental shit together better than most of her compatriots. However, with China you can never be entirely sure. Had Jinnan not fallen off beam in Tokyo, she'd be the defending AA champion. Instead, she's a bit of a question mark.
When I was trying to decide who my probable AA medal podium would be, I came up with about 800 possible combinations, so I thought I'd stick with who I'd most like to see take home medals in London. Franky, only one thing is really certain- this is going to be one hell of a competition. Can't wait.
My Dream AA Medalists:
Gold: Aliya Mustafina
Silver: Larisa Iordache
Bronze: Viktoria Komova
This quad, for the first time since 2000, there are at least 7-8 gymnasts with a real shot of winning an AA medal, including the gold. Having this many viable medal contenders is going to make for a nail biting competition, where, just like in 1996, putting a single foot wrong could take you out of the medal hunt entirely.
So, who are the main players in this drama? Here's who I'm picturing as the top 8 AA qualifiers:
Yao Jinnan, China
Huang Qiushuang, China
Larisa Iordache, Romania
Sandra Izbasa, Romania
Viktoria Komova, Russia
Aliya Mustafina, Russia
Jordyn Wieber, USA
Gabrielle Douglas, USA
While the event finals will no doubt see lots of athletes from less prominent gymnastics nations, the AA will be dominated by the Big 4, as it was in 2008, when the top 8 finishers were all Big 4 athletes. This isn't to say that there won't be some great athletes on the floor from other countries, like Vanessa Ferrari, Kristina Vaculik, and Elisabeth Seitz- it's just that no one else has shown the difficulty and execution necessary to knock one of these contenders out of their spots... if they hit.
The question of "if they hit" is something that could possibly alter the AA gymnasts from Russia and the USA, both of whom have 3 gymnasts who will almost certainly do the AA in qualifications. Raisman and Grishina haven't quite got the difficulty of their compatriots, but they could still sneak in. Raisman is a hitter (outside of bars in the AA), and Douglas and Wieber are probably feeling much more pressure to make the final than her, which could give Raisman a slight edge. Grishina's overall fitness is still a bit uncertain after the Russian Cup, but she is more than worthy of an AA slot should Komova or Mustafina have rough outings.
In terms of strengths on particular apparatuses, the picture looks like this:
Vault: Wieber, Douglas, Komova for sure. Probably Iordache, Mustafina and maybe Qiushuang (although I can see her being a Juang Yuyuan repeat on vault), and Izbasa if she throws her 6.1.
Bars: Komova and Mustafina have the biggest edge here, followed by Douglas and the Chinese gymnasts.
Beam: Iordache and Jinnan are the class of the field here. The Russians have the potential for brilliance, the Americans are usually solid but can be nervy.
Floor: Wieber, Iordache, and Izbasa are the big guns on floor. Douglas can hit this routine cold (Day 1 of Trials) or botch the dance elements and landings (Day 2 of Trials). It hasn't been a great piece for the Russians as of late. Jinnan has beautiful execution but not the huge difficulty others have.
The two gymnasts with the most strengths, according to this breakdown, are Iordache and Douglas, providing Iordache does in fact vault an Amanar as training reports suggest. However, when you put their mental toughness side by side, there's no comparison- Iordache comes out on top easily.
If I was to break this field into "Headgame or no headgame", it would look like this:
Headgame: Wieber, Iordache, Mustafina, Izbasa
No headgame: Qiushuang, Douglas
Who the hell knows?: Komova, Jinnan
Wieber and Mustafina are battle-tested, and Mustafina in particular is going to be out for redemption after her injury. The fact that not a lot of people are picking her for a medal could be the best thing that's ever happened to her, providing she can survive vault. Wieber is facing considerably more pressure as the defending World AA champion, but she's dealt with it all season quite well. The Romanians are the most psychologically solid team on Earth, as ever. Izbasa won't get near a medal without major mistakes from at least 4 other top competitors, so the pressure's really off for her, and Iordache is insanely reliable.
Qiushuang, Amanar or not, has yet to prove her mettle in a major international AA competition. Douglas has been so relentlessly hyped by the media here in the States, but she is still a wild-card in my book. She's almost Russian or Chinese in her ability to effortlessly hit one competition and fall apart the next. Her performances in qualifications and the TF could give us a bit more insight into how she's dealing with the pressure of being a serious AA medal candidate.
Komova has put in amazing AA performances before, at the YOG and in the Worlds qualifications (Remember how she beat Wieber there with a DTY? Not enough people do). Then there were the 2011 Worlds AA finals, and the 2011 World beam finals, and the 2012 Euro beam finals. See a pattern here? If she can hit beam she is so in it to win it...but it hasn't happened for a while.
Jinnan is the strongest AAer China's had since Mo Huilan, and seems to have her mental shit together better than most of her compatriots. However, with China you can never be entirely sure. Had Jinnan not fallen off beam in Tokyo, she'd be the defending AA champion. Instead, she's a bit of a question mark.
When I was trying to decide who my probable AA medal podium would be, I came up with about 800 possible combinations, so I thought I'd stick with who I'd most like to see take home medals in London. Franky, only one thing is really certain- this is going to be one hell of a competition. Can't wait.
My Dream AA Medalists:
Gold: Aliya Mustafina
Silver: Larisa Iordache
Bronze: Viktoria Komova
This blog is pretty good but for some reason crazy fans who spend almost all the time seeking true internet for a news about athletes, watching old videos and commenting on gymnastics blogs is avoid this one : )
ReplyDeleteWell, thank you for reading Ksenia! :)
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