This is the first in a series of posts where I will attempt to predict who'll be making the various Olympic finals. I may go in for a couple of winners/medalists too in future posts, but this post is dedicated to the Team Final, and the 8 teams that I'm predicting will make it through qualifications.
All of the discussions surrounding the medal race for London are exciting, but rarely mention the very exciting race to the final itself. Romania, Russia, China and the USA are certainly the top teams entering this competition, but there are going to be four other teams on the floor during the final, and the battle for these four spots is one of the biggest unsung stories this quad.
In Beijing, Brazil, Japan, Australia and France were the other four teams in the TF, but none of them are sure things for this year's competition. Australia have the best chances of a return appearance, with a strong AA backbone with Ashleigh Brennan and Emily Little and big scores on beam and floor from Lauren Mitchell. They do have some weaknesses on bars, and a bit of inconsistency on beam at times, but they've got a very good shot of making the final.
The other three teams are much less certain prospects. I really haven't seen a lot of the Japanese women at international competitions this year. Japan is traditionally great on bars and beam, but weak on floor and vault- two of this team's members, Tsurumi and Teramoto, made the bars final at the Tokyo Worlds in 2011. The team has been set for ages, but it's almost impossible (for me, anyway) to figure out what their Olympic prospects are.
France has been absolutely decimated by injuries on both the men's and women's sides. It's been absolutely awful to read report after report of great French athletes sustaining serious, possibly career-ending injuries, like Thomas Bouhail and Marine Brevet. I can't remember a spell of such serious injuries befalling one nation in such a short span of time, and they've certainly made it less likely that either the French women or men will be part of the TF. France does have a couple of great individuals in Anne Kuhm and Youna Dufournet, but Kuhm is still quite new to the international scene and Dufournet is Europe's Huang Quishuang- massive amounts of talent, but inconsistency issues so serious that she's never lived up to her promise in a major competition.
Brazil just scraped through to the Olympic qualifications at the Test Event, and they will be without their best all-arounder, Jade Barbosa. It will take some serious mistakes from some other teams for Brazil to make it to this team final. Germany, which wasn't present in the TF in Beijing, did make it to the Tokyo Worlds, but they looked such a hot hot mess at Euros and at the recent Romanian Invitational, that like Brazil, they'll be needing some major help to make the finals.
If I had to predict three teams to join Australia and the big 4, they would be Canada, the UK, and Italy. Canada has one of the deepest teams they've had in ages, some very solid all-arounders, a couple of DTYs, and one of the most exciting first year seniors in the world with Victoria Moors. Italy is coming off a bronze medal performance at Euros, and while they are perpetually carrying a few injuries, the trio of Vanessa Ferrari, Erika Fasana and Carlotta Ferlito could carry them into the finals.
Finally, the UK has the home team advantage, strong work on bars and floor, and has several all-important DTYs as well. They came in 5th in Tokyo, an outstanding achievement, and are absolutely the team on the rise at the moment. It would be a shock (and frankly, a disappointment) if they were to miss out on the finals.
Team Final Prediction:
Russia
Romania
USA
China
UK
Italy
Canada
Australia
All of the discussions surrounding the medal race for London are exciting, but rarely mention the very exciting race to the final itself. Romania, Russia, China and the USA are certainly the top teams entering this competition, but there are going to be four other teams on the floor during the final, and the battle for these four spots is one of the biggest unsung stories this quad.
In Beijing, Brazil, Japan, Australia and France were the other four teams in the TF, but none of them are sure things for this year's competition. Australia have the best chances of a return appearance, with a strong AA backbone with Ashleigh Brennan and Emily Little and big scores on beam and floor from Lauren Mitchell. They do have some weaknesses on bars, and a bit of inconsistency on beam at times, but they've got a very good shot of making the final.
The other three teams are much less certain prospects. I really haven't seen a lot of the Japanese women at international competitions this year. Japan is traditionally great on bars and beam, but weak on floor and vault- two of this team's members, Tsurumi and Teramoto, made the bars final at the Tokyo Worlds in 2011. The team has been set for ages, but it's almost impossible (for me, anyway) to figure out what their Olympic prospects are.
France has been absolutely decimated by injuries on both the men's and women's sides. It's been absolutely awful to read report after report of great French athletes sustaining serious, possibly career-ending injuries, like Thomas Bouhail and Marine Brevet. I can't remember a spell of such serious injuries befalling one nation in such a short span of time, and they've certainly made it less likely that either the French women or men will be part of the TF. France does have a couple of great individuals in Anne Kuhm and Youna Dufournet, but Kuhm is still quite new to the international scene and Dufournet is Europe's Huang Quishuang- massive amounts of talent, but inconsistency issues so serious that she's never lived up to her promise in a major competition.
Brazil just scraped through to the Olympic qualifications at the Test Event, and they will be without their best all-arounder, Jade Barbosa. It will take some serious mistakes from some other teams for Brazil to make it to this team final. Germany, which wasn't present in the TF in Beijing, did make it to the Tokyo Worlds, but they looked such a hot hot mess at Euros and at the recent Romanian Invitational, that like Brazil, they'll be needing some major help to make the finals.
If I had to predict three teams to join Australia and the big 4, they would be Canada, the UK, and Italy. Canada has one of the deepest teams they've had in ages, some very solid all-arounders, a couple of DTYs, and one of the most exciting first year seniors in the world with Victoria Moors. Italy is coming off a bronze medal performance at Euros, and while they are perpetually carrying a few injuries, the trio of Vanessa Ferrari, Erika Fasana and Carlotta Ferlito could carry them into the finals.
Finally, the UK has the home team advantage, strong work on bars and floor, and has several all-important DTYs as well. They came in 5th in Tokyo, an outstanding achievement, and are absolutely the team on the rise at the moment. It would be a shock (and frankly, a disappointment) if they were to miss out on the finals.
Team Final Prediction:
Russia
Romania
USA
China
UK
Italy
Canada
Australia
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