Saturday, June 16, 2012

Visas wrap-up

I apologize for being a day late and a dollar short on this recap- after a crazy week at work I'm more than ready to sit back and ponder the infinite mysteries of Martha Karolyi's brain!

Once the dust settled at Visas, the landscape of the American Olympic picture looked...well, largely the same.However, there were of course some dramatic moments, some commentating and broadcasting nonsense, and some off-camera insanity- here's what I learned from Visas, and what to watch for heading to the Olympic Trials:

1.) The more things change, the more they stay the same. From what I've seen around the gymternet, the common consensus of a Wieber/Raisman/Douglas/Maroney/Ross team stood the test of Visas. These five should be considered the frontrunners for tickets to London, and barring injuries more serious than Maroney's unfortunate concussion and broken nose, I would expect these five to be Martha's picks.

Wieber did defend her title, but it wasn't by much. Had Douglas not fallen off beam, she would be sitting in the silver medal position heading to Trials. On Day 2, Jordyn had a much stronger vault and a less shaky beam (although I thought the judges were way too generous on her connection bonuses on either side of her full twisting tuck). She put in another solid bars and floor set as well, giving her another 8 for 8 competition heading into Trials. However, she is in the somewhat unenviable "Shawn Johnson" slot- an undefeated senior season and reigning World Champion heading to an Olympic competition, and we all know how that turned out for her.



Aly left Visas as the national champion on both floor and beam. Her consistency and steadiness really do set her apart, especially on beam on Day 2, where almost everyone else had problems of some kind. Aly's Amanar, however, gave her problems on both days- she keeps landing while still twisting into the ground, something that not only could cause her to lose heavily on execution, but also could cause a potential knee injury. I would really like to see her go back to her DTY which was always very solid, but without the extra Amanar difficulty, Aly doesn't have a chance of catching Gabby for the second AAer slot.

Oh, Gabby. I haven't been bitten by the Douglas bug as so many others have, and therefore I was not too surprised when she fell off beam at the start of the competition. (The 14.1 score, however, was surprising, and not in a good way!) Her bars, floor, and vault were greatly improved from Day One, if you ask me, and had she hit beam, she would have won the whole shebang. If she can hit 4 for 4 like she did at the American Cup, she's pretty much untouchable among the American squad...the problem is, she hasn't done that since the American Cup. I remain unconvinced that she can put it all together at the Olympics, but she wouldn't be the first athlete to peak right at the right moment in an Olympic year.

Obviously, Maroney didn't compete on Day Two, but her vaulting excellence and a solid performance at Trials will punch her ticket to London. The fact that so many of the other Americans were having issues with their vaulting made her beautiful execution stand out even more on Day One, but she is clearly a one event gymnast in a TF. It will be interesting to see if she competes the AA at Trials after her injury, but even if she does I still wouldn't put her up on anything but vault. I may hate Gabby's floor music with the fire of 1000 suns, but let's be real here, floor for McKayla in the TF is not going to happen.

Frankly, although you'd never guess it given her lack of coverage from NBC, Elizabeth Price could be Maroney's biggest competition for an Olympic slot. She's also got an insanely good Amanar (though not a second vault) and unlike Maroney, she can contribute on bars and floor in a realistic way. I can't see Martha taking her over Maroney barring a massive meltdown, but really, she should be a MUCH bigger part of the team conversation than she has been. She's definitely one to watch for at Trials and certainly a potential, viable, alternate.

Finally, Kyla Ross had another very solid competition, wisely choosing to downgrade her vault to a DTY on both days, and hitting solid bars and beam sets as well. Her utility as an AA gymnast, competitive consistency and good if not spectacular bars are what's going to get her to London. I continue to remain baffled about her non-upgraded floor routine, but Ross is going to be the Sabrina Vega, the table-setter, of this London squad. Barring major disasters from Aly, Gabby, and Jordyn, Kyla will most likely not be looking for much in the way of individual glory.

2.) Liukin full of hot air?

After a triumphant return at Classics, and some promising reports from podium training, expectations were high for Nastia's bars routine. However, she hit 0 for 2 sets at Visas, looking out of shape and labored, and in no way ready for Olympic competition. Despite going 1 for 4 over two days of competition, she was still invited to the Olympic Trials, something that just pisses me off SO MUCH. She did not demonstrate competitive readiness (though she did score over 14 for both beam routines, so I guess Martha's arbitrary measurement of "yes, you can advance to the next stage" actually worked here. I can't even express how upset poor Chellsie Memmel must have felt, timing beam routines and wishing she could be on that stage. I can hardly write about this, it makes me incoherent with rage, so here's a link to a great piece by Andy Thornton that says everything I'd want to say, but much more intelligently.

3.) Who should we watch for at Trials?

Aside from the big 5 named previously, I think there are four gymnasts who stood out from the herd enough to keep themselves in the hunt for an alternate slot- or, should a massive meltdown or injury occur, a team spot.

Elizabeth Price, as I mentioned, is an appealing alternate option due to her great difficulty on vault and floor, and a solid (if somewhat poorly executed) bars set. Sarah Finnegan, despite issues on beam and floor, her two strengths, still placed in the top 8 AA and is easily the most elegant elite senior American gymnast. Style has never mattered much to Martha, but it helps Sarah bring something different to the table. Alicia Sacramone looked very solid on vault and beam, and her international experience and reputation shouldn't be ignored- however, it's not as if America is short on strong vaulters or competent beamers at the moment. Finally, Bridget Sloan showed up looking in great shape, and performed two great (and underscored) bars routines, and could be used on floor and beam in a pinch as well. Her competitive abilities and Olympic experiences, too, shouldn't be ignored or underestimated.

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