The Agony of Defeat

24 hours later, I'm still reeling. Judging by some of the comments and number of views I've had since yesterday, many of you are too.

I'm not going to break down the Women's All Around Competition in terms of routines just yet. To be honest, it's still too depressing. What I want to talk about is the portrayal, interpretations and reactions in the American media and public to this Russian team, and their emotional reactions to these last two competitive defeats.

Let's get a couple things out the way first. I'm an American. I have no Russian heritage, but I have traveled to Russia and met many wonderful people there. I also much prefer the Russian style and school of gymnastics to the American school, with a couple of exceptions- I am a major fan of Shannon Miller and Dominique Dawes, and have also been impressed with Sarah Finnegan, McKayla Maroney, Shawn Johnson and Nastia Liukin on individual apparatus in more recent years.

NBC is the one stop shop in terms of Olympic TV broadcasting for the vast majority of Americans. More dedicated fans may stream the infinitely superior BBC coverage, but for most people, they get their coverage from NBC.

And this is the kind of "news" NBC sees fit to print after the AA.

Team Final Superlatives

Best Routine: McKayla Maroney, Vault

Maroney justified her placement on this team with the most flat out amazing Amanar I think anyone's ever seen. Height, flight, effortless twisting, and a perfect landing. Jawdroppingly gorgeous, where on Earth those judges found any deductions is a mystery to me.


Most Horrifying Moment: Ksenia Afanasyeva, Floor

Russia's team leader executed the best floor routine of the night...until she crashed her last pass to her head. Unable to hold back her tears as she saluted the judges, the devastation running through the Russian camp at this last, defining moment of defeat was agonizing to watch.

Most Underscored Routine: Ksenia Afanasyeva, Beam

After two very shaky Russian routines, Afanasyeva calmly and coolly executed the best beam of her life. The quality of her work stood out, not just among her nervous teammates, but among the field at large. However, the judges awarded her a sub 15 score, lower than her less fluent qualifications routine, and just where they found those deductions I'd like to know. If you want an example of everything that's wrong with this code, wrap your heads around the fact that Raisman's routine, with its lack of expression, flexibility or anything approaching the "artistic", complete with weak (for her) dismount, STILL SCORED HIGHER than Afanasyeva's work. Absolutely fucking ridiculous.


Most Impressive Comeback: Team Canada

Canada was almost entirely written off after the loss of the great Peng Peng Lee to injury, with many people predicting they wouldn't even qualify to the TF. Indeed, they just squeezed past Australia and Germany in qualifications, but they came to play at the final, especially on vault and floor. A 5th place finish is a superb result for the Canadian program, which was taking part in its first team final ever.

London 2012: Vault

Of all the WAG apparatus, this event is the most cut and dry in terms of medal prospects- there are so few gymnasts training two vaults at this stage, there are hardly enough to make up a final.

A slight wrench has just been thrown into what should be the easiest gold medal to predict in all of WAG- McKayla Maroney reportedly has suffered a broken toe during her training, but during podium sessions today appeared mostly unaffected by the injury. If her health remains stable, she is the firm favorite for gold.

The other main contenders for vault are as follows:

Sandra Izbasa: The two time European champion is, funnily enough, more likely to medal on vault than floor, the apparatus she is best known for, and where she is the defending Olympic champion. Sandra threw her Cheng today in podium training, and even without it she has a powerful DTY and solid Mustafina. With her good execution and fairly even start values, she has a great shot at the podium.

Oksana Chusovitina: Gymnastics' grand dame is in what will probably be her last Olympics, and there's really not much left to say about her outstanding career. It would be wonderful to see her make the podium one last time.

Janine Berger: The first year German senior actually defeated Chuso at German Nationals this year, and has been throwing 6.3 and 6.0 vaults, which actually gives her a higher start value than Izbasa without her Cheng. Berger is definitely my dark horse pick for a vaulting medal, if she can hold her nerve in her first major international competition.

Valeria Maksyuta: Vaulting was what helped this experienced Israeli gymnast make the Olympics at the Test Event. She just missed out on a vaulting medal at Euros this year, and it would be great to see her make a final after all the drama with her simply qualifying to the Games!

London 2012: The All Around

The all-around competition this Olympics has the potential to be one of the all-time classics- or if not quite that outstanding, at least a return to the multifaceted and deep competition we were treated to in 1996. 2008 was pretty much a head-to-head between Liukin and Johnson, 2004 was a yawner of a competition with perhaps the dullest AA champion of all time, and 2000 was marred by The Vault Controversy and The Karpenko Disaster, among other things.

This quad, for the first time since 2000, there are at least 7-8 gymnasts with a real shot of winning an AA medal, including the gold. Having this many viable medal contenders is going to make for a nail biting competition, where, just like in 1996, putting a single foot wrong could take you out of the medal hunt entirely.

So, who are the main players in this drama? Here's who I'm picturing as the top 8 AA qualifiers:

Yao Jinnan, China
Huang Qiushuang, China
Larisa Iordache, Romania
Sandra Izbasa, Romania
Viktoria Komova, Russia
Aliya Mustafina, Russia
Jordyn Wieber, USA
Gabrielle Douglas, USA


While the event finals will no doubt see lots of athletes from less prominent gymnastics nations, the AA will be dominated by the Big 4, as it was in 2008, when the top 8 finishers were all Big 4 athletes. This isn't to say that there won't be some great athletes on the floor from other countries, like Vanessa Ferrari, Kristina Vaculik, and Elisabeth Seitz- it's just that no one else has shown the difficulty and execution necessary to knock one of these contenders out of their spots... if they hit.

Visas wrap-up

I apologize for being a day late and a dollar short on this recap- after a crazy week at work I'm more than ready to sit back and ponder the infinite mysteries of Martha Karolyi's brain!

Once the dust settled at Visas, the landscape of the American Olympic picture looked...well, largely the same.However, there were of course some dramatic moments, some commentating and broadcasting nonsense, and some off-camera insanity- here's what I learned from Visas, and what to watch for heading to the Olympic Trials:

1.) The more things change, the more they stay the same. From what I've seen around the gymternet, the common consensus of a Wieber/Raisman/Douglas/Maroney/Ross team stood the test of Visas. These five should be considered the frontrunners for tickets to London, and barring injuries more serious than Maroney's unfortunate concussion and broken nose, I would expect these five to be Martha's picks.

Wieber did defend her title, but it wasn't by much. Had Douglas not fallen off beam, she would be sitting in the silver medal position heading to Trials. On Day 2, Jordyn had a much stronger vault and a less shaky beam (although I thought the judges were way too generous on her connection bonuses on either side of her full twisting tuck). She put in another solid bars and floor set as well, giving her another 8 for 8 competition heading into Trials. However, she is in the somewhat unenviable "Shawn Johnson" slot- an undefeated senior season and reigning World Champion heading to an Olympic competition, and we all know how that turned out for her.

USA Podium Training Notes

USA Gymnastics has posted loads of video from today's podium training for US Nationals here, if you're looking for something/someone in particular. I'm going to hit a few highlights, but it will by no means be exhaustive.

The biggest buzz was of course Nastia back on bars, albeit heavily spotted by Valeri through her Pak and releases, but still knocking out a great stuck dismount towards the end of the session. Of course, whether or not she can hit it in competition and without spotting is an entirely other matter.

If she can, I'd be very nervous if my name was Kyla Ross or McKayla Maroney.

More on Chellsie

The latest news, per Blythe, is that Steve Penny had the nerve to call the Memmels, and suggest that Chellsie retire.

UNBELIEVABLE.

US Classics

Obviously, no one is trying to peak at Classics, but there was plenty of interesting stuff going on tonight to talk about!

1.) The return of Nastia 

You gotta hand it to Nastia, she looked in shape and sharper than most on beam today. Obviously, her chances of making this team without a standout bar routine are nil, but on a night where most girls were nervy and shaky on beam, a hit routine after 3 years away from competition is nothing to sneeze at.

2.) The rise of Finnegan 


Sarah Finnegan, competing 3 events, had a great meet. As a first year senior, she has definitely been overshadowed by Ross, but that's going to be over after tonight, especially for a 15.2 floor routine and a solid, if not spectacular, bar set. Flying under the radar for this long may turn out to be the best thing that happens to her, as she's been able to get on with her training without being subject to a lot of scrutiny.

Well, holy crap

Just when you think the USA has got this thing wrapped up, Alicia Sacramone goes down with an Achilles injury.

This is devestating for Team USA for a couple of reasons. In a group of so many young ones, Alicia was the leader, an almost unofficial coach, who helped support these babies psychologically in the pressure-cooker atmosphere of Worlds. Without her, there IS no natural leader on the squad.

Secondly, with Anna Li out too, USA has to go up with 5 gymnasts, while everyone else has 6. The pre-lims lineup, courtesy of Universal Sports, is as follows:


Vault: Vega, Douglas, Raisman, Wieber, Maroney.
Uneven bars: Raisman, Maroney, Vega, Wieber, Douglas.
Balance beam: Maroney, Vega, Raisman, Wieber, Douglas.
Floor exercise: Douglas, Vega, Wieber, Maroney, Raisman.

Marta is now looking pretty smart to have named Vega as an alternate, and an idiot for working her athletes to the bone in training. Everything's covered here, but pre-lims is going to be FAR more tenuous than USA would have liked. I'm not quite so worried about finals, because they're still a good team on paper when it's 3 up, 3 count, but having to stick Raisman on bars and Maroney on beam is far from ideal. I'd assume their finals lineup will look something like:

Vault: Raisman/Douglas, Wieber, Maroney
Bars: Vega, Douglas, Wieber
Beam: Vega/Douglas, Wieber, Raisman
Floor: Douglas/Maroney, Wieber, Raisman

Obviously a couple of these spots will be determined by prelims, but that's the general plan. Still not a bad team, but missing Sacramone does shrink their overall start values on vault, beam and floor.

I still think USA could win this, but it's not going to be nearly as easy or clear-cut as before. China and Romania now are looking like slightly stronger than just an outside chance. I never, EVER trust China to hit in a finals, as I've been burned many times before, but I guess there is a first time for everything, right?

Romania has been looking quite steady in training, according to reports, and while they don't have anything in the same difficulty universe on bars as China, and they have a serious vault deficit to the USA, they could really benefit from their trademark reliability in this scenario.

Russia has been such a bunch of head-casing nightmares in training that they could either challenge for the gold or end up in 8th. It completely depends on what team shows up to play on the game day. Alexandrov is probably popping heartburn meds like no other these days.

One thing is for sure- this is going to be a seriously interesting couple of days in the gymnastics world.

Worlds are coming! Random thoughts ahoy!

I love reading the training reports from The Couch Gymnast and Blythe. It just gets me even more psyched.

USA of course is looking strongest thus far. I am basically resigned to the idea that they're going to win the Team gold barring a complete meltdown, even though their work is so soulless (exceptions being McKayla's vault, Gabby's bars, and not much else). 

I haven't heard much about Team China's training, but I am excited to see how this intriguing mix of newbies and veterans copes with the pressure. You can just never count on China to hit, no matter what you see in training, but still, they have some gorgeous athletes in Tokyo.

I would love it if Ukraine's Mariya Livchikova could bring home some hardware on floor. Ukraine has had SUCH a rough go of it since 1996, it would be delightful if she could make a big impact here.

Finally, Catalina Ponor: world gold medalist at last? It could happen on beam this year. Fingers crossed!

Worlds teams, part 2

With China announcing their lineup for Tokyo today, we're just waiting on Romania and the USA to complete the big 4 teams.

The USA girls will be back for a round 2 of camps with Marta K next week, to finalize Worlds and Pan Ams selection. Bridget Sloan being around has got a lot of people buzzing about the possibility of her sneaking on to yet another major squad. History does have a tendency to repeat itself, and Sloan is a former World AA champ and a strong bars worker. Like Chellsie, she's not someone you'd count out of anything.

Both Romania and the US are alike in that so much of their selection buzz is surrounding finding someone- anyone- who can swing bars worth a damn in a World Championship. Ana Porgras and Amelia Racea have decent sets, but that third spot is just a nightmare for Romania.

I wouldn't be surprised if Gabriela Dragoi takes it: she has lots of competition experience and a good beam set that can be used in prelims if necessary.

Honestly, I really am pulling for Romania this year, but it'll take some serious screw-ups from Russia and the USA for them to win the team final. However, in terms of individual medals, they've got loads of opportunities. I'm particularly excited to see Izbasa and Ponor take another run at winning a Worlds' gold.