The Agony of Defeat

24 hours later, I'm still reeling. Judging by some of the comments and number of views I've had since yesterday, many of you are too.

I'm not going to break down the Women's All Around Competition in terms of routines just yet. To be honest, it's still too depressing. What I want to talk about is the portrayal, interpretations and reactions in the American media and public to this Russian team, and their emotional reactions to these last two competitive defeats.

Let's get a couple things out the way first. I'm an American. I have no Russian heritage, but I have traveled to Russia and met many wonderful people there. I also much prefer the Russian style and school of gymnastics to the American school, with a couple of exceptions- I am a major fan of Shannon Miller and Dominique Dawes, and have also been impressed with Sarah Finnegan, McKayla Maroney, Shawn Johnson and Nastia Liukin on individual apparatus in more recent years.

NBC is the one stop shop in terms of Olympic TV broadcasting for the vast majority of Americans. More dedicated fans may stream the infinitely superior BBC coverage, but for most people, they get their coverage from NBC.

And this is the kind of "news" NBC sees fit to print after the AA.

Team Final Superlatives

Best Routine: McKayla Maroney, Vault

Maroney justified her placement on this team with the most flat out amazing Amanar I think anyone's ever seen. Height, flight, effortless twisting, and a perfect landing. Jawdroppingly gorgeous, where on Earth those judges found any deductions is a mystery to me.


Most Horrifying Moment: Ksenia Afanasyeva, Floor

Russia's team leader executed the best floor routine of the night...until she crashed her last pass to her head. Unable to hold back her tears as she saluted the judges, the devastation running through the Russian camp at this last, defining moment of defeat was agonizing to watch.

Most Underscored Routine: Ksenia Afanasyeva, Beam

After two very shaky Russian routines, Afanasyeva calmly and coolly executed the best beam of her life. The quality of her work stood out, not just among her nervous teammates, but among the field at large. However, the judges awarded her a sub 15 score, lower than her less fluent qualifications routine, and just where they found those deductions I'd like to know. If you want an example of everything that's wrong with this code, wrap your heads around the fact that Raisman's routine, with its lack of expression, flexibility or anything approaching the "artistic", complete with weak (for her) dismount, STILL SCORED HIGHER than Afanasyeva's work. Absolutely fucking ridiculous.


Most Impressive Comeback: Team Canada

Canada was almost entirely written off after the loss of the great Peng Peng Lee to injury, with many people predicting they wouldn't even qualify to the TF. Indeed, they just squeezed past Australia and Germany in qualifications, but they came to play at the final, especially on vault and floor. A 5th place finish is a superb result for the Canadian program, which was taking part in its first team final ever.

Notes on Qualifications, or HOLY WHAT?

Man, and I thought the men's qualifications were off the chain. Let's break down the surprises and shocks of WAG qualifications:

1.) NO JORDYN WIEBER. 

Honestly, did anyone see this coming? If so, please tell me next week's lottery numbers and where I can best go panning for gold.

After handling the pressure of being the defending AA champion in an Olympic year quite easily at Olympic Trials, US Championships, etc. Wieber qualified as the third American gymnast, blowing a crater into the race for AA gold. After being largely overshadowed all season as an all-arounder, Aly Raisman placed second in qualifications to beat Wieber out of a spot. She even beat Gabby Douglas for the top American position in quals! I mean, you can't make this up!

And not to say I told you so, but I KNEW Jordyn's beam composition was going to come back to haunt her. She was only credited with a 6.0 in qualifications after being given a 6.4 at USA Nationals for connections that she simply was not making. This is why I will never understand the generous national scoring in the USA- it creates a false reality and set of expectations around a gymnast. Much like Kyla Ross's ridiculously low floor difficulty, her beam set was an ongoing problem that could have been fixed, but wasn't.

2.) Deng Linlin = China's Second All-Arounder

Again, who thought this was going to happen? Not only is Yao Jinnan out of the AA thanks to painful troubles on vault and beam (how this poor athlete is going to get through the TF, I've no idea. Call Juang Yuyuan, China!), but Linlin beat her more heralded teammate, Huang Quishuang, as China's top qualifier. She had apparently been struggling with a sore back in training, so good on you Linlin!

3.) Event Finals Shockers

My predictions for floor are pretty much out the window, as Larisa Iordache botched her third pass to score in the high 13's (13's! For a Romanian on floor!). Not to be outdone, Sui Lu botched two passes and didn't qualify. Meanwhile, Afanasyeva watered down her routine and still placed 4th, and Raisman received what I'd describe as the world's most generous D score to place first in quals. Plus, Mustafina made it over Grishina! Yeah, sure, why not?

Beam was similarly nuts. Ponor had a shaky routine for her and just squeaked in, Iordache won't be there, but Didi Bulimar who Romania probably should have put up on floor, and may be in TF, is going to be there, after a very solid routine. Douglas, of all people, is going to be there as the second American and placed third! Afanasyeva is going to be there! The entire lineup comes from the top 4 teams, something I actually did get right.

I have one thing to say about bars- Grishina got a lower score than Raisman. In what fucked up universe is that a thing? Tweddle knocked it out of the park, as did the Chinese and Mustafina/Komova. Everyone else should just be happy to be there.

The biggest and best thing about vault finals would have to be Maria Paseka doing two good vaults and putting herself in bronze medal position, putting a Russian in every event final. 

4.) Russia keeps it close

Grishina's miss on bars was their biggest issue all day- Mustafina can do better on beam, and Komova kept up her streak of being subpar on floor, but they kept it close. Very close. Despite what NBC and the American media have been telling you, if Russia can handle their business, this is not going to be an easy, no-brainer win for the USA.

5.) Romania melts down

After the horrendous performance of the Chinese on floor, 3rd place in qualifications was Romania's to lose, and lose it they did. With their bars, misses on floor from Iordache and Ponor and a sub-par beam rotation are just not going to cut it at ALL. If you're going to suck on one event, you best get your shit together for the ones you are good at. Considering how weak the Chinese looked, the failure of Romania to capitalize on their errors is pretty shocking.

These Russian updates from training, you guys

Paseka nailing an Amanar! Grishina with a double double! Komova doing a triple full to back tuck on floor!

It really ain't over until the fat lady sings. Stay healthy, stay focused, and stay hungry, Mother Russia.

London 2012: Beam

More so than any apparatus, the lineup for the beam final could go a variety of different ways, simply because it is the most unpredictable. Depending on what happens in prelims, we could see a number of different lineups, especially from nations with a couple of viable candidates.

The one nation whose lineup is essentially locked is Romania. Larisa Iordache and Catalina Ponor, for my money, are the two gymnasts most likely to take gold because they combine huge difficulty with unshakable consistency. Ponor in particular has been an absolute beast on beam since her return, and I'm picturing her just pipping her teammate for the gold, especially if she pulls out her full twisting double dismount.

I've always been a huge Catalina fan, and her comeback has been sheer joy to watch- if she was to cap it off to a return to the top of the podium, it would be a fitting climax. Iordache is certainly capable of reaching the top of the podium as well- she's got a massive D score, and if she can put all her connections together, she'll be very tough to top.

China's lineup, on the other hand, is much more up in the air. They should easily qualify 2 competitors to the final, but who they are will completely depend on quals. Sui Lu should be considered a lock, but she has been more inconsistent on beam than on floor. Her complete and utter meltdown at the Test Event certainly shook up the perception that she got her shit together in Tokyo, but she is the defending World Champion, with a very difficult routine when she gets it right.

Deng Linlin is China's most consistent performer- as a multiple World medalist, she's earned her beam stripes, and is capable of scoring in the low 15s. She could easily be the second Chinese finalist, but she'll have to battle it out with Yao Jinnan, who was 2nd in Tokyo, but is a bit more inconsistent. She won't have forgotten that she could have been a World AA gold medalist had she not fallen off beam. It's also possible that Quishuang will sneak in there, but her routine is really reliant on connection bonuses that she doesn't always complete, and she'd need a bit of help from her teammates to make the final.

London 2012: Floor

The list of Olympic floor champions contains some of the sport's all time greats: Korbut, Comaneci, Silivas, Milosovici, and Podkopayeva are just a couple of the illustrious names you'll find. The Europeans have completely owned this event at the Olympics, with Romania being the dominant power in recent years, winning 5 of the last 7 gold medals.

So, who are the major players this year?

First, we have the defending world champion, Ksenia Afanasyeva. If she can pull out another performance like her Tokyo finals masterclass, she should be well in the mix, but her health and fitness has seemed in question all season. Plus, of course, there is her frustrating habit of inconsistency across competitions. However, for my money there's almost no one out there who can match her combination of super difficult tumbling (double layout, whip to triple twist), great execution and complex choreo and dance.

If another Russian makes the finals, I would expect it to be Anastasia Grishina. Her presence and execution on floor, when she puts it all together, is simply superb. Remember this gem (when she was still a junior)?

A nagging leg injury may keep her from being at her best, but the Olympic final NEEDS this kind of class to balance out one of the other likely competitors.

This is, of course, Aly Raisman of the USA, who scored a ludicrous 15.8 on floor at the US Olympic Trials. Raisman has the highest difficulty score in the world presently at 6.5 (according to The All Around's recent rankings). That first pass is killer, but her presence, choreo, and "dance" elements are frankly abysmal- it's this lack of style, toepoint, extension, and, well, any kind of charisma, that gives American gymnastics a bad name. However, as we all know, Raiman hasn't missed a routine in ages, so she'll make the final. If the judges do their job, she shouldn't win gold, even with an advantage on difficulty. A medal though is by no means out of the question, but if she was the first American to win gold on floor, I for one will throw my TV out the window.

London 2012: The All Around

The all-around competition this Olympics has the potential to be one of the all-time classics- or if not quite that outstanding, at least a return to the multifaceted and deep competition we were treated to in 1996. 2008 was pretty much a head-to-head between Liukin and Johnson, 2004 was a yawner of a competition with perhaps the dullest AA champion of all time, and 2000 was marred by The Vault Controversy and The Karpenko Disaster, among other things.

This quad, for the first time since 2000, there are at least 7-8 gymnasts with a real shot of winning an AA medal, including the gold. Having this many viable medal contenders is going to make for a nail biting competition, where, just like in 1996, putting a single foot wrong could take you out of the medal hunt entirely.

So, who are the main players in this drama? Here's who I'm picturing as the top 8 AA qualifiers:

Yao Jinnan, China
Huang Qiushuang, China
Larisa Iordache, Romania
Sandra Izbasa, Romania
Viktoria Komova, Russia
Aliya Mustafina, Russia
Jordyn Wieber, USA
Gabrielle Douglas, USA


While the event finals will no doubt see lots of athletes from less prominent gymnastics nations, the AA will be dominated by the Big 4, as it was in 2008, when the top 8 finishers were all Big 4 athletes. This isn't to say that there won't be some great athletes on the floor from other countries, like Vanessa Ferrari, Kristina Vaculik, and Elisabeth Seitz- it's just that no one else has shown the difficulty and execution necessary to knock one of these contenders out of their spots... if they hit.

Russia and Romania select Olympic teams

Russia is, as expected, Mustafina, Komova, Grishina, Paseka and Afanasyeva.

This is a team with perhaps stronger individual hopes than team prospects, although if they all have a good day at the TF, they will be challenging for the top spot. Mustafina, Grishina and Komova alone are three of the best all-around gymnasts in the sport today. They have the skills and the difficulty, but the question with team Russia is always this; will they be able to put it all together when the moment comes? I certainly hope so.

As far as individual medals are concerned, Russia has the potential to dominate every apparatus but vault. Afanasyeva and Grishina should make floor finals, Mustafina and Komova bars, and a combination of Komova, Mustafina and Grishina on beam. The talent is certainly there for this to be a repeat of the 2000 event finals, where Russia won 3 out of the 4 golds on offer. Komova and Mustafina are also definitely threats for AA medals if they both upgrade to Amanars. Komova has been competing Amanars successfully in internal test events, and no one should put it past Mustafina to have one in her back pocket either.

Romania did throw a slight surprise into the mix with their team selection, taking Diana Chelaru instead of Raluca Haidu, along with the quartet of locks, Sandra Izbasa, Diana Bulimar, Larisa Iordache and Catalina Ponor. Haidu would have only been used on bars as the Romanian version of a bars specialist in the TF, and Chelaru is useable on bars and floor (and vault as a last resort because her form is eeeesh). Izbasa actually put together a decent bars set at the Romanian International Friendly, so theoretically either she or Chelaru could lead the team off on bars, followed by Bulimar and Iordache.

The individual hopes for this team are many and varied as well. Iordache should be considered the frontrunner for the AA if she throws the Amanar she's been training. Even without it, she's in the medal hunt. The girl is insanely consistent with massive difficulty; basically, she's ideal for this code and what it asks for. I find her an infinitely more palatable gold medal prospect than Wieber or Douglas- and how amazing would it be for Romania to end this quad on top, after all their turmoil and trials since 2004?

Izbasa is definitely a contender for a vault medal (though she'd need help from Maroney to win gold). Ponor, Izbasa and Iordache should all be in the floor final- stupid two per country rule. Any of them could win gold. Iordache and Ponor are certainly co-favorites for the beam gold, along with the Chinese duo of Jinnan and Lu.

As far as team prospects go, if Romania does indeed get an Amanar from Iordache, plus Izbasa's Mustafina (I have serious doubts about that Cheng seeing the competition floor, but it could happen) and a solid DTY from Ponor, plus their insanely good beam/floor rotation, they will be well positioned for a medal, possibly even gold if the USA or Russia slip up. Romania is expert at taking advantage of others' mistakes, and they have the talent and consistency to make it happen.

Team Russia

Whereas Teams USA, Romania, and China are all looking pretty set for London (with China announcing an almost complete WAG team today) the last member of the big 4, Russia, is still delightfully uncertain.

The Russian Cup event did little to illuminate who will eventually make it to the big dance, and the 8 member training squad got most attention for excluding Anna Dementyeva and Anna Pavlova. However, I wasn't shocked by either of these. Demy, God bless her, has gorgeous toepoint and delightful presence, but hasn't been healthy since last year's Euros. She's also not exactly known for her consistency. The Russian Federation has been done with Pavlova since Beijing 2008, and unless she pulled out an Amanar vault or a high scoring floor, she was never going to going to make it to the next stage.

Yulia Inshina has got the alternate slot locked down after a solid but unspectacular AA performance- she's a steady performer but doesn't quite have the difficulty to make her an Olympic team contender.

This leaves us with Mustafina, Grishina, Afanasyeva, Komova, Sidorova, Paseka and Nabieva to choose a team from. I was rather surprised Sidorova even made it to the training squad- she was the hottest of hot messes on every event at the Cup, but she is known as a beam/floor gymnast, and with Afanasyeva still recovering from an ankle injury, I suspect the coaches wanted to have a backup in case GOD FORBID Ksenia isn't healthy in time for London.

Grishina only competed bars since she has some kind of leg injury, which had better not be serious if the Russians have any medal aspirations whatsoever, as she is desperately needed on floor and beam. Paseka unveiled an Amanar with serious consistency issues (with Russia, is there any other kind?)- if she can get it nailed down in the next month, however, she's going to London. Nabieva looks in shape, but isn't needed on bars and has the same horrific execution as ever on vault.

However, it's not all doom and gloom for Russia. There is no one performing bars right now like Komova and Mustafina- Mustafina in particular is hitting her full difficulty set, complete with Mustafina dismount, and making it look like an absolute cakewalk. Komova is not hitting her double double dismount with as much consistency, but that stupid half turn before it is looking better than it did at Worlds. In a perfect world, they will go 1-2 in the Olympic EF.

Mustafina is looking stronger on beam and floor than she did at Euros, and Komova hit a Patterson dismount in EF. It would be a mistake to count either of these girls out of taking an AA medal home, including the gold, especially if they get their Amanars back (which you just know they will).

My prediction for Team Russia, assuming injuries don't get in the way:

V: Komova, Mustafina, Paseka
UB: Grishina, Mustafina, Komova
BB: Grishina, Komova, Afanayseva/Mustafina
F: Grishina, Afanasyeva, Komova/Mustafina

Alternate: Inshina