London 2012: Beam

More so than any apparatus, the lineup for the beam final could go a variety of different ways, simply because it is the most unpredictable. Depending on what happens in prelims, we could see a number of different lineups, especially from nations with a couple of viable candidates.

The one nation whose lineup is essentially locked is Romania. Larisa Iordache and Catalina Ponor, for my money, are the two gymnasts most likely to take gold because they combine huge difficulty with unshakable consistency. Ponor in particular has been an absolute beast on beam since her return, and I'm picturing her just pipping her teammate for the gold, especially if she pulls out her full twisting double dismount.

I've always been a huge Catalina fan, and her comeback has been sheer joy to watch- if she was to cap it off to a return to the top of the podium, it would be a fitting climax. Iordache is certainly capable of reaching the top of the podium as well- she's got a massive D score, and if she can put all her connections together, she'll be very tough to top.

China's lineup, on the other hand, is much more up in the air. They should easily qualify 2 competitors to the final, but who they are will completely depend on quals. Sui Lu should be considered a lock, but she has been more inconsistent on beam than on floor. Her complete and utter meltdown at the Test Event certainly shook up the perception that she got her shit together in Tokyo, but she is the defending World Champion, with a very difficult routine when she gets it right.

Deng Linlin is China's most consistent performer- as a multiple World medalist, she's earned her beam stripes, and is capable of scoring in the low 15s. She could easily be the second Chinese finalist, but she'll have to battle it out with Yao Jinnan, who was 2nd in Tokyo, but is a bit more inconsistent. She won't have forgotten that she could have been a World AA gold medalist had she not fallen off beam. It's also possible that Quishuang will sneak in there, but her routine is really reliant on connection bonuses that she doesn't always complete, and she'd need a bit of help from her teammates to make the final.

Russia and Romania select Olympic teams

Russia is, as expected, Mustafina, Komova, Grishina, Paseka and Afanasyeva.

This is a team with perhaps stronger individual hopes than team prospects, although if they all have a good day at the TF, they will be challenging for the top spot. Mustafina, Grishina and Komova alone are three of the best all-around gymnasts in the sport today. They have the skills and the difficulty, but the question with team Russia is always this; will they be able to put it all together when the moment comes? I certainly hope so.

As far as individual medals are concerned, Russia has the potential to dominate every apparatus but vault. Afanasyeva and Grishina should make floor finals, Mustafina and Komova bars, and a combination of Komova, Mustafina and Grishina on beam. The talent is certainly there for this to be a repeat of the 2000 event finals, where Russia won 3 out of the 4 golds on offer. Komova and Mustafina are also definitely threats for AA medals if they both upgrade to Amanars. Komova has been competing Amanars successfully in internal test events, and no one should put it past Mustafina to have one in her back pocket either.

Romania did throw a slight surprise into the mix with their team selection, taking Diana Chelaru instead of Raluca Haidu, along with the quartet of locks, Sandra Izbasa, Diana Bulimar, Larisa Iordache and Catalina Ponor. Haidu would have only been used on bars as the Romanian version of a bars specialist in the TF, and Chelaru is useable on bars and floor (and vault as a last resort because her form is eeeesh). Izbasa actually put together a decent bars set at the Romanian International Friendly, so theoretically either she or Chelaru could lead the team off on bars, followed by Bulimar and Iordache.

The individual hopes for this team are many and varied as well. Iordache should be considered the frontrunner for the AA if she throws the Amanar she's been training. Even without it, she's in the medal hunt. The girl is insanely consistent with massive difficulty; basically, she's ideal for this code and what it asks for. I find her an infinitely more palatable gold medal prospect than Wieber or Douglas- and how amazing would it be for Romania to end this quad on top, after all their turmoil and trials since 2004?

Izbasa is definitely a contender for a vault medal (though she'd need help from Maroney to win gold). Ponor, Izbasa and Iordache should all be in the floor final- stupid two per country rule. Any of them could win gold. Iordache and Ponor are certainly co-favorites for the beam gold, along with the Chinese duo of Jinnan and Lu.

As far as team prospects go, if Romania does indeed get an Amanar from Iordache, plus Izbasa's Mustafina (I have serious doubts about that Cheng seeing the competition floor, but it could happen) and a solid DTY from Ponor, plus their insanely good beam/floor rotation, they will be well positioned for a medal, possibly even gold if the USA or Russia slip up. Romania is expert at taking advantage of others' mistakes, and they have the talent and consistency to make it happen.

My personal gym highlights and lowlights: Part one- the beam

One of the oldest, most oft-repeated chestnuts about gymnastics is also one of the truest- beam is the great leveler. Every twitch of your nerves is visible, every split-second of self-doubt can manifest itself into one of those wobbles that make the audience catch their breath and Elfi say "ooh, a little balance check there". It's perhaps this heightened sense of nervous energy, within the gymnast and the viewer, that makes great beam routines so exhilarating, and bad ones so painful to watch. Here are some of my personal stand-out beam routines- for a variety of reasons:

Chellsie Memmel, Olympic Trials day 2, 2008: So close and yet so far

I've always been a Chellsie fan. You can't help but feel for her terrible injury timing around the Olympics, especially her ankle injury in 2008 JUST she was looking so sharp after recovering from yet ANOTHER injury. This beam routine has it all- great pace, great variety of skills, incredible difficulty, and a stuck dismount. It's a memorable routine not just for its stand-alone excellence, but because of the "what might have been" feeling I get every time I revisit it.