The Agony of Defeat

24 hours later, I'm still reeling. Judging by some of the comments and number of views I've had since yesterday, many of you are too.

I'm not going to break down the Women's All Around Competition in terms of routines just yet. To be honest, it's still too depressing. What I want to talk about is the portrayal, interpretations and reactions in the American media and public to this Russian team, and their emotional reactions to these last two competitive defeats.

Let's get a couple things out the way first. I'm an American. I have no Russian heritage, but I have traveled to Russia and met many wonderful people there. I also much prefer the Russian style and school of gymnastics to the American school, with a couple of exceptions- I am a major fan of Shannon Miller and Dominique Dawes, and have also been impressed with Sarah Finnegan, McKayla Maroney, Shawn Johnson and Nastia Liukin on individual apparatus in more recent years.

NBC is the one stop shop in terms of Olympic TV broadcasting for the vast majority of Americans. More dedicated fans may stream the infinitely superior BBC coverage, but for most people, they get their coverage from NBC.

And this is the kind of "news" NBC sees fit to print after the AA.

These Russian updates from training, you guys

Paseka nailing an Amanar! Grishina with a double double! Komova doing a triple full to back tuck on floor!

It really ain't over until the fat lady sings. Stay healthy, stay focused, and stay hungry, Mother Russia.

London 2012: Beam

More so than any apparatus, the lineup for the beam final could go a variety of different ways, simply because it is the most unpredictable. Depending on what happens in prelims, we could see a number of different lineups, especially from nations with a couple of viable candidates.

The one nation whose lineup is essentially locked is Romania. Larisa Iordache and Catalina Ponor, for my money, are the two gymnasts most likely to take gold because they combine huge difficulty with unshakable consistency. Ponor in particular has been an absolute beast on beam since her return, and I'm picturing her just pipping her teammate for the gold, especially if she pulls out her full twisting double dismount.

I've always been a huge Catalina fan, and her comeback has been sheer joy to watch- if she was to cap it off to a return to the top of the podium, it would be a fitting climax. Iordache is certainly capable of reaching the top of the podium as well- she's got a massive D score, and if she can put all her connections together, she'll be very tough to top.

China's lineup, on the other hand, is much more up in the air. They should easily qualify 2 competitors to the final, but who they are will completely depend on quals. Sui Lu should be considered a lock, but she has been more inconsistent on beam than on floor. Her complete and utter meltdown at the Test Event certainly shook up the perception that she got her shit together in Tokyo, but she is the defending World Champion, with a very difficult routine when she gets it right.

Deng Linlin is China's most consistent performer- as a multiple World medalist, she's earned her beam stripes, and is capable of scoring in the low 15s. She could easily be the second Chinese finalist, but she'll have to battle it out with Yao Jinnan, who was 2nd in Tokyo, but is a bit more inconsistent. She won't have forgotten that she could have been a World AA gold medalist had she not fallen off beam. It's also possible that Quishuang will sneak in there, but her routine is really reliant on connection bonuses that she doesn't always complete, and she'd need a bit of help from her teammates to make the final.

London 2012: Bars

In 2008, the bars final was marred, first by a confusing and obscure tie-breaking rule, then in two medalists who won more than they deserved, if you asked me. (Yang Yilin was robbed BLIND of that gold medal).

This year, we have the opportunity to have a top-notch final full of outstanding gymnasts who've pushed this particular event in new and exciting ways, despite the Code's best efforts to squeeze the artistic out of artistic gymnastics.

My favorite routine on bars this quad came from Aliya Mustafina at this year's Euros:

Even without her Mustafina dismount, which adds a bit more difficulty and which she has since competed successfully at the Russian Cup, this routine has still got it all- beautiful handstands, great swing, innovative skills and a stuck dismount. It's exciting, original and well-executed- what else could you ask for in an Olympic gold medal routine? Aliya is who I'm rooting for on bars- not just everyone would take a torn ACL and turn it into an opportunity to push themselves even further on the one event they can still work.

Her biggest competition will probably come from her countrywoman, Viktoria Komova:

For my money, this is an outstanding routine in terms of execution, but the composition isn't as exciting or original as Aliya's, which is why I'm giving her the edge. However, Vika is more than capable of taking the gold if she nails her double double dismount and maintains her consistency on this event.

The hometown favorite is of course Beth Tweddle, in her 3rd and probably last Olympics. Beth is another athlete that's been pushing the boundaries of what's possible on bars, and I love how she's kept going and pushing herself even as she's gotten a bit older and battled back from injuries. It would be such a thrill to see her win a medal in front of a home crowd, especially since she's been such a driving force in building up British gymnastics.

London 2012: Floor

The list of Olympic floor champions contains some of the sport's all time greats: Korbut, Comaneci, Silivas, Milosovici, and Podkopayeva are just a couple of the illustrious names you'll find. The Europeans have completely owned this event at the Olympics, with Romania being the dominant power in recent years, winning 5 of the last 7 gold medals.

So, who are the major players this year?

First, we have the defending world champion, Ksenia Afanasyeva. If she can pull out another performance like her Tokyo finals masterclass, she should be well in the mix, but her health and fitness has seemed in question all season. Plus, of course, there is her frustrating habit of inconsistency across competitions. However, for my money there's almost no one out there who can match her combination of super difficult tumbling (double layout, whip to triple twist), great execution and complex choreo and dance.

If another Russian makes the finals, I would expect it to be Anastasia Grishina. Her presence and execution on floor, when she puts it all together, is simply superb. Remember this gem (when she was still a junior)?

A nagging leg injury may keep her from being at her best, but the Olympic final NEEDS this kind of class to balance out one of the other likely competitors.

This is, of course, Aly Raisman of the USA, who scored a ludicrous 15.8 on floor at the US Olympic Trials. Raisman has the highest difficulty score in the world presently at 6.5 (according to The All Around's recent rankings). That first pass is killer, but her presence, choreo, and "dance" elements are frankly abysmal- it's this lack of style, toepoint, extension, and, well, any kind of charisma, that gives American gymnastics a bad name. However, as we all know, Raiman hasn't missed a routine in ages, so she'll make the final. If the judges do their job, she shouldn't win gold, even with an advantage on difficulty. A medal though is by no means out of the question, but if she was the first American to win gold on floor, I for one will throw my TV out the window.

London 2012: The All Around

The all-around competition this Olympics has the potential to be one of the all-time classics- or if not quite that outstanding, at least a return to the multifaceted and deep competition we were treated to in 1996. 2008 was pretty much a head-to-head between Liukin and Johnson, 2004 was a yawner of a competition with perhaps the dullest AA champion of all time, and 2000 was marred by The Vault Controversy and The Karpenko Disaster, among other things.

This quad, for the first time since 2000, there are at least 7-8 gymnasts with a real shot of winning an AA medal, including the gold. Having this many viable medal contenders is going to make for a nail biting competition, where, just like in 1996, putting a single foot wrong could take you out of the medal hunt entirely.

So, who are the main players in this drama? Here's who I'm picturing as the top 8 AA qualifiers:

Yao Jinnan, China
Huang Qiushuang, China
Larisa Iordache, Romania
Sandra Izbasa, Romania
Viktoria Komova, Russia
Aliya Mustafina, Russia
Jordyn Wieber, USA
Gabrielle Douglas, USA


While the event finals will no doubt see lots of athletes from less prominent gymnastics nations, the AA will be dominated by the Big 4, as it was in 2008, when the top 8 finishers were all Big 4 athletes. This isn't to say that there won't be some great athletes on the floor from other countries, like Vanessa Ferrari, Kristina Vaculik, and Elisabeth Seitz- it's just that no one else has shown the difficulty and execution necessary to knock one of these contenders out of their spots... if they hit.

Russia and Romania select Olympic teams

Russia is, as expected, Mustafina, Komova, Grishina, Paseka and Afanasyeva.

This is a team with perhaps stronger individual hopes than team prospects, although if they all have a good day at the TF, they will be challenging for the top spot. Mustafina, Grishina and Komova alone are three of the best all-around gymnasts in the sport today. They have the skills and the difficulty, but the question with team Russia is always this; will they be able to put it all together when the moment comes? I certainly hope so.

As far as individual medals are concerned, Russia has the potential to dominate every apparatus but vault. Afanasyeva and Grishina should make floor finals, Mustafina and Komova bars, and a combination of Komova, Mustafina and Grishina on beam. The talent is certainly there for this to be a repeat of the 2000 event finals, where Russia won 3 out of the 4 golds on offer. Komova and Mustafina are also definitely threats for AA medals if they both upgrade to Amanars. Komova has been competing Amanars successfully in internal test events, and no one should put it past Mustafina to have one in her back pocket either.

Romania did throw a slight surprise into the mix with their team selection, taking Diana Chelaru instead of Raluca Haidu, along with the quartet of locks, Sandra Izbasa, Diana Bulimar, Larisa Iordache and Catalina Ponor. Haidu would have only been used on bars as the Romanian version of a bars specialist in the TF, and Chelaru is useable on bars and floor (and vault as a last resort because her form is eeeesh). Izbasa actually put together a decent bars set at the Romanian International Friendly, so theoretically either she or Chelaru could lead the team off on bars, followed by Bulimar and Iordache.

The individual hopes for this team are many and varied as well. Iordache should be considered the frontrunner for the AA if she throws the Amanar she's been training. Even without it, she's in the medal hunt. The girl is insanely consistent with massive difficulty; basically, she's ideal for this code and what it asks for. I find her an infinitely more palatable gold medal prospect than Wieber or Douglas- and how amazing would it be for Romania to end this quad on top, after all their turmoil and trials since 2004?

Izbasa is definitely a contender for a vault medal (though she'd need help from Maroney to win gold). Ponor, Izbasa and Iordache should all be in the floor final- stupid two per country rule. Any of them could win gold. Iordache and Ponor are certainly co-favorites for the beam gold, along with the Chinese duo of Jinnan and Lu.

As far as team prospects go, if Romania does indeed get an Amanar from Iordache, plus Izbasa's Mustafina (I have serious doubts about that Cheng seeing the competition floor, but it could happen) and a solid DTY from Ponor, plus their insanely good beam/floor rotation, they will be well positioned for a medal, possibly even gold if the USA or Russia slip up. Romania is expert at taking advantage of others' mistakes, and they have the talent and consistency to make it happen.

Team Russia

Whereas Teams USA, Romania, and China are all looking pretty set for London (with China announcing an almost complete WAG team today) the last member of the big 4, Russia, is still delightfully uncertain.

The Russian Cup event did little to illuminate who will eventually make it to the big dance, and the 8 member training squad got most attention for excluding Anna Dementyeva and Anna Pavlova. However, I wasn't shocked by either of these. Demy, God bless her, has gorgeous toepoint and delightful presence, but hasn't been healthy since last year's Euros. She's also not exactly known for her consistency. The Russian Federation has been done with Pavlova since Beijing 2008, and unless she pulled out an Amanar vault or a high scoring floor, she was never going to going to make it to the next stage.

Yulia Inshina has got the alternate slot locked down after a solid but unspectacular AA performance- she's a steady performer but doesn't quite have the difficulty to make her an Olympic team contender.

This leaves us with Mustafina, Grishina, Afanasyeva, Komova, Sidorova, Paseka and Nabieva to choose a team from. I was rather surprised Sidorova even made it to the training squad- she was the hottest of hot messes on every event at the Cup, but she is known as a beam/floor gymnast, and with Afanasyeva still recovering from an ankle injury, I suspect the coaches wanted to have a backup in case GOD FORBID Ksenia isn't healthy in time for London.

Grishina only competed bars since she has some kind of leg injury, which had better not be serious if the Russians have any medal aspirations whatsoever, as she is desperately needed on floor and beam. Paseka unveiled an Amanar with serious consistency issues (with Russia, is there any other kind?)- if she can get it nailed down in the next month, however, she's going to London. Nabieva looks in shape, but isn't needed on bars and has the same horrific execution as ever on vault.

However, it's not all doom and gloom for Russia. There is no one performing bars right now like Komova and Mustafina- Mustafina in particular is hitting her full difficulty set, complete with Mustafina dismount, and making it look like an absolute cakewalk. Komova is not hitting her double double dismount with as much consistency, but that stupid half turn before it is looking better than it did at Worlds. In a perfect world, they will go 1-2 in the Olympic EF.

Mustafina is looking stronger on beam and floor than she did at Euros, and Komova hit a Patterson dismount in EF. It would be a mistake to count either of these girls out of taking an AA medal home, including the gold, especially if they get their Amanars back (which you just know they will).

My prediction for Team Russia, assuming injuries don't get in the way:

V: Komova, Mustafina, Paseka
UB: Grishina, Mustafina, Komova
BB: Grishina, Komova, Afanayseva/Mustafina
F: Grishina, Afanasyeva, Komova/Mustafina

Alternate: Inshina

Suck it, haters

This is how you recover from a bad meet.

But congrats to Romania! A well-deserved win, and a thriller of a competition.

European Qualifications

Well, what a shit show that was for Russia, and for Mustafina in particular. It's no secret that I'm rooting for Aliya to win gold in London, but today was not her finest hour by a long shot. 1 out of 3 events two months before the Olympics is concerning, but considering the last time she was at Europeans she blew out her knee, I wouldn't call it an apocalyptic moment. I'd certainly rather have her melt down today than in Olympic qualifications.

I am still completely convinced that she's got it in her, though, and while there are plenty of people calling this a sign of Dobre-itis (namely, how a major injury can take the spark out of a gymnast) I think that's way too early to call. Gym fans are so fickle (Aunt Joyce is one of the worst, tbh, though their commentary can be divine. See also their feelings towards Liukin, Nastia), that it doesn't shock me that a lot of people are taking this as a sign of doom.

Personally, I have faith in Aliya. This may prove to be misguided, but I sincerely hope not.

As far as those other Russians go, Grishina hit 3 for 4, which is about par for the course for her, and still managed to qualify 2nd in the unofficial all-around...so not an entirely disastrous day for her. Sidorova has proven herself a very steady beam worker, something Russia could really use, but imploded on floor. Paseka is entirely unremarkable, if you ask me, and Komova nailed bars but was wobble city on beam- better than Tokyo, but still not as good as her junior days.

Romania, on the other hand, rocked the house. Not a missed routine, and Iordache and Ponor were in especially stellar form. Iordache was the top all-around contender, breaking the 60 point margin, and killing it on floor and beam especially. If that girl can get herself an Amanar, I would probably put her at the top of my AA contender list, over any Russian and American you care to name. Even without one, her difficulty and consistency definitely makes her a podium contender. There's a spark to her gymnastics on every event that is a rare and wonderful quality.

Romania, unlike Russia, has dealt pretty well with their overall lack of depth. Bulimar has grown a lot since worlds in terms of her consistency, her bars routine and her steadiness on beam, making her, aside from vaulting, a pretty good Izbasa substitute. Izbasa only competed on vault in quals, which I think was a smart move. Ponor is the baddest most fabulous beam worker out there, if you ask me, and her value to this team is astronomical. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the team Romania took to Euros turns out to be their Olympic team. Chelaru at this stage brings way less to the table than Haidu, despite her international experience, and unless she can add a point's worth of execution to her bars routine in the next 2 months, she'll be the alternate.

Aside from these two teams, the highlight of these Euro quals for me was the return of Livchikova of Ukraine. Even though she's not eligible to head to the Olympics, her delightful floor routine and original combinations on beam make her one of my favorite gymnasts in the sport today, a reminder of how expressive and beautiful gymnastics can truly be. Thrilled that we'll be seeing her in floor finals!

Well, holy crap

Just when you think the USA has got this thing wrapped up, Alicia Sacramone goes down with an Achilles injury.

This is devestating for Team USA for a couple of reasons. In a group of so many young ones, Alicia was the leader, an almost unofficial coach, who helped support these babies psychologically in the pressure-cooker atmosphere of Worlds. Without her, there IS no natural leader on the squad.

Secondly, with Anna Li out too, USA has to go up with 5 gymnasts, while everyone else has 6. The pre-lims lineup, courtesy of Universal Sports, is as follows:


Vault: Vega, Douglas, Raisman, Wieber, Maroney.
Uneven bars: Raisman, Maroney, Vega, Wieber, Douglas.
Balance beam: Maroney, Vega, Raisman, Wieber, Douglas.
Floor exercise: Douglas, Vega, Wieber, Maroney, Raisman.

Marta is now looking pretty smart to have named Vega as an alternate, and an idiot for working her athletes to the bone in training. Everything's covered here, but pre-lims is going to be FAR more tenuous than USA would have liked. I'm not quite so worried about finals, because they're still a good team on paper when it's 3 up, 3 count, but having to stick Raisman on bars and Maroney on beam is far from ideal. I'd assume their finals lineup will look something like:

Vault: Raisman/Douglas, Wieber, Maroney
Bars: Vega, Douglas, Wieber
Beam: Vega/Douglas, Wieber, Raisman
Floor: Douglas/Maroney, Wieber, Raisman

Obviously a couple of these spots will be determined by prelims, but that's the general plan. Still not a bad team, but missing Sacramone does shrink their overall start values on vault, beam and floor.

I still think USA could win this, but it's not going to be nearly as easy or clear-cut as before. China and Romania now are looking like slightly stronger than just an outside chance. I never, EVER trust China to hit in a finals, as I've been burned many times before, but I guess there is a first time for everything, right?

Romania has been looking quite steady in training, according to reports, and while they don't have anything in the same difficulty universe on bars as China, and they have a serious vault deficit to the USA, they could really benefit from their trademark reliability in this scenario.

Russia has been such a bunch of head-casing nightmares in training that they could either challenge for the gold or end up in 8th. It completely depends on what team shows up to play on the game day. Alexandrov is probably popping heartburn meds like no other these days.

One thing is for sure- this is going to be a seriously interesting couple of days in the gymnastics world.

Moscow World Cup

I think gymnastics fans in general were looking forward to this particular World Cup more than usual this year, because it's one of the first tests for the Russian squad in this new "minus Mustafina" era. Loads of blogs have a roundup of the results, like this one from Couch Gymnast, so I won't bother to reprint them here, but here's a couple of takeaways:

Welcome back, Ksenia! Great to see Afanasyeva back out in competition- in my opinion, she's basically a lock to make it to Worlds this year barring another injury. Her floor music DESPERATELY needs changing, and her triple twist was way overpowered, but she's got a high start value on floor and a decent beam set. With a few more months of training, I think she'll be back in her 2010 shape and will definitely be able to contribute to the team.

Does anyone know what's going on with Lauren? I haven't read any recent injury reports but something must be up for her only to compete on bars and not beam or floor, her strong suits. And this bars set made my heart sink, to be honest- she'd been looking so much better on this, her weakest event and really what's keeping her from making an impact as an all-arounder, but this seemed like a return to crappy-form-town.

Dementyeva continues to have a great season of competition, winning gold on beam and floor and silver on bars. Her improved consistency must be a source of comfort to the Russian coaches- now if she can only upgrade that vault, we'd REALLY be in business.