Notes on Qualifications, or HOLY WHAT?

Man, and I thought the men's qualifications were off the chain. Let's break down the surprises and shocks of WAG qualifications:

1.) NO JORDYN WIEBER. 

Honestly, did anyone see this coming? If so, please tell me next week's lottery numbers and where I can best go panning for gold.

After handling the pressure of being the defending AA champion in an Olympic year quite easily at Olympic Trials, US Championships, etc. Wieber qualified as the third American gymnast, blowing a crater into the race for AA gold. After being largely overshadowed all season as an all-arounder, Aly Raisman placed second in qualifications to beat Wieber out of a spot. She even beat Gabby Douglas for the top American position in quals! I mean, you can't make this up!

And not to say I told you so, but I KNEW Jordyn's beam composition was going to come back to haunt her. She was only credited with a 6.0 in qualifications after being given a 6.4 at USA Nationals for connections that she simply was not making. This is why I will never understand the generous national scoring in the USA- it creates a false reality and set of expectations around a gymnast. Much like Kyla Ross's ridiculously low floor difficulty, her beam set was an ongoing problem that could have been fixed, but wasn't.

2.) Deng Linlin = China's Second All-Arounder

Again, who thought this was going to happen? Not only is Yao Jinnan out of the AA thanks to painful troubles on vault and beam (how this poor athlete is going to get through the TF, I've no idea. Call Juang Yuyuan, China!), but Linlin beat her more heralded teammate, Huang Quishuang, as China's top qualifier. She had apparently been struggling with a sore back in training, so good on you Linlin!

3.) Event Finals Shockers

My predictions for floor are pretty much out the window, as Larisa Iordache botched her third pass to score in the high 13's (13's! For a Romanian on floor!). Not to be outdone, Sui Lu botched two passes and didn't qualify. Meanwhile, Afanasyeva watered down her routine and still placed 4th, and Raisman received what I'd describe as the world's most generous D score to place first in quals. Plus, Mustafina made it over Grishina! Yeah, sure, why not?

Beam was similarly nuts. Ponor had a shaky routine for her and just squeaked in, Iordache won't be there, but Didi Bulimar who Romania probably should have put up on floor, and may be in TF, is going to be there, after a very solid routine. Douglas, of all people, is going to be there as the second American and placed third! Afanasyeva is going to be there! The entire lineup comes from the top 4 teams, something I actually did get right.

I have one thing to say about bars- Grishina got a lower score than Raisman. In what fucked up universe is that a thing? Tweddle knocked it out of the park, as did the Chinese and Mustafina/Komova. Everyone else should just be happy to be there.

The biggest and best thing about vault finals would have to be Maria Paseka doing two good vaults and putting herself in bronze medal position, putting a Russian in every event final. 

4.) Russia keeps it close

Grishina's miss on bars was their biggest issue all day- Mustafina can do better on beam, and Komova kept up her streak of being subpar on floor, but they kept it close. Very close. Despite what NBC and the American media have been telling you, if Russia can handle their business, this is not going to be an easy, no-brainer win for the USA.

5.) Romania melts down

After the horrendous performance of the Chinese on floor, 3rd place in qualifications was Romania's to lose, and lose it they did. With their bars, misses on floor from Iordache and Ponor and a sub-par beam rotation are just not going to cut it at ALL. If you're going to suck on one event, you best get your shit together for the ones you are good at. Considering how weak the Chinese looked, the failure of Romania to capitalize on their errors is pretty shocking.

London 2012: Bars

In 2008, the bars final was marred, first by a confusing and obscure tie-breaking rule, then in two medalists who won more than they deserved, if you asked me. (Yang Yilin was robbed BLIND of that gold medal).

This year, we have the opportunity to have a top-notch final full of outstanding gymnasts who've pushed this particular event in new and exciting ways, despite the Code's best efforts to squeeze the artistic out of artistic gymnastics.

My favorite routine on bars this quad came from Aliya Mustafina at this year's Euros:

Even without her Mustafina dismount, which adds a bit more difficulty and which she has since competed successfully at the Russian Cup, this routine has still got it all- beautiful handstands, great swing, innovative skills and a stuck dismount. It's exciting, original and well-executed- what else could you ask for in an Olympic gold medal routine? Aliya is who I'm rooting for on bars- not just everyone would take a torn ACL and turn it into an opportunity to push themselves even further on the one event they can still work.

Her biggest competition will probably come from her countrywoman, Viktoria Komova:

For my money, this is an outstanding routine in terms of execution, but the composition isn't as exciting or original as Aliya's, which is why I'm giving her the edge. However, Vika is more than capable of taking the gold if she nails her double double dismount and maintains her consistency on this event.

The hometown favorite is of course Beth Tweddle, in her 3rd and probably last Olympics. Beth is another athlete that's been pushing the boundaries of what's possible on bars, and I love how she's kept going and pushing herself even as she's gotten a bit older and battled back from injuries. It would be such a thrill to see her win a medal in front of a home crowd, especially since she's been such a driving force in building up British gymnastics.

Team Great Britain

This is the third in a series of posts looking at the complex and complicated process of Olympic team selection. China and Russia, two of the main medal contenders, have been covered, but now let's turn to one of the biggest up-and-coming gymnastics nations in both MAG and WAG, Great Britain.

Great Britain, if you ask me, is really the new Australia in the gymnastics world- a country with one big star,  some strong juniors and first year seniors, and a nation that's starting to make a mark as a team. GB just missed out on a team medal at this year's Euros, and surely one of the biggest surprises this quad came at the 2010 Euros, where they beat Romania for second place.

After their national championships this year, the team prospects for Great Britain became somewhat clearer, but only somewhat. The two acknowledged locks are of course Beth Tweddle and Hannah Whelan. Whelan had a shaky championships, losing her national title and not winning any individual golds, but is coming off a two bronze medal performance at Euros, including one on beam, which is definitely the weak spot for this team.

To this list of locks I would add Rebecca Tunney, the first year senior who beat Whelan for the national title. I could see Tunney performing on all events in TF, she has a DTY, strong floor and solid (if a bit sloppy) bars. Beam, like so many of the British gymnasts, is her weakness, but she might be their best option depending on how the rest of the selection process goes.

There are so many other possible combinations for these last two slots that it's hard to guess which way the committee will go. Danusia Francis is an experienced gymnast who, unlike most of the Brits, stays on the beam, her specialty, most of the time. Becky Downie, Niamh Rippeh, and Imogen Cairns are all very solid on vault and floor, and there's definitely a hole that needs to be filled for vault in the TF. Ruby Harrold is another promising first year senior who made the European bars final and vaults a DTY.

I think, however, that one of those spots could go to Jennifer Pinches, who came 2nd in the AA this championships. Pinches also won the beam title with a couple of wobbles for a 14.3 score. An all-arounder who's reliable on beam makes a lot of sense for this team, and Francis, despite her elegance and contributions to Team GB, is really only usable on 1 event in a TF. If Pinches is selected, then Harrold's or Downie's chances could increase, as Pinches is not a renowned bar worker. Harrold is of course not as experienced, but Downie has been struggling with injuries for these past couple of years

However, this is just one possible permutation out of many the committee must be considering. Another thing to consider is Tweddle's knee- if she wants to set her sights on bars gold, she may want to be a bit more cautious about her floor numbers, and may not even get back to her full difficulty prior to London.

Just like with any team, there are a lot of elements to consider here, but it's going to be really exciting to see how things pan out for Team GB in London, no matter who's there. My feeling is that the team should go for broke- they'll be in front of a home crowd and fielding a strong squad, they might as well take a few risks and bring Harrold, despite her inexperience.

My predictions for TF:

VT: Harrold/Pinches, Whelan, Tunney
UB: Harrold, Tunney, Tweddle
BB: Pinches, Tunney, Whelan
FX: Whelan, Tunney, Tweddle