London 2012: Vault

Of all the WAG apparatus, this event is the most cut and dry in terms of medal prospects- there are so few gymnasts training two vaults at this stage, there are hardly enough to make up a final.

A slight wrench has just been thrown into what should be the easiest gold medal to predict in all of WAG- McKayla Maroney reportedly has suffered a broken toe during her training, but during podium sessions today appeared mostly unaffected by the injury. If her health remains stable, she is the firm favorite for gold.

The other main contenders for vault are as follows:

Sandra Izbasa: The two time European champion is, funnily enough, more likely to medal on vault than floor, the apparatus she is best known for, and where she is the defending Olympic champion. Sandra threw her Cheng today in podium training, and even without it she has a powerful DTY and solid Mustafina. With her good execution and fairly even start values, she has a great shot at the podium.

Oksana Chusovitina: Gymnastics' grand dame is in what will probably be her last Olympics, and there's really not much left to say about her outstanding career. It would be wonderful to see her make the podium one last time.

Janine Berger: The first year German senior actually defeated Chuso at German Nationals this year, and has been throwing 6.3 and 6.0 vaults, which actually gives her a higher start value than Izbasa without her Cheng. Berger is definitely my dark horse pick for a vaulting medal, if she can hold her nerve in her first major international competition.

Valeria Maksyuta: Vaulting was what helped this experienced Israeli gymnast make the Olympics at the Test Event. She just missed out on a vaulting medal at Euros this year, and it would be great to see her make a final after all the drama with her simply qualifying to the Games!

Team Russia

Whereas Teams USA, Romania, and China are all looking pretty set for London (with China announcing an almost complete WAG team today) the last member of the big 4, Russia, is still delightfully uncertain.

The Russian Cup event did little to illuminate who will eventually make it to the big dance, and the 8 member training squad got most attention for excluding Anna Dementyeva and Anna Pavlova. However, I wasn't shocked by either of these. Demy, God bless her, has gorgeous toepoint and delightful presence, but hasn't been healthy since last year's Euros. She's also not exactly known for her consistency. The Russian Federation has been done with Pavlova since Beijing 2008, and unless she pulled out an Amanar vault or a high scoring floor, she was never going to going to make it to the next stage.

Yulia Inshina has got the alternate slot locked down after a solid but unspectacular AA performance- she's a steady performer but doesn't quite have the difficulty to make her an Olympic team contender.

This leaves us with Mustafina, Grishina, Afanasyeva, Komova, Sidorova, Paseka and Nabieva to choose a team from. I was rather surprised Sidorova even made it to the training squad- she was the hottest of hot messes on every event at the Cup, but she is known as a beam/floor gymnast, and with Afanasyeva still recovering from an ankle injury, I suspect the coaches wanted to have a backup in case GOD FORBID Ksenia isn't healthy in time for London.

Grishina only competed bars since she has some kind of leg injury, which had better not be serious if the Russians have any medal aspirations whatsoever, as she is desperately needed on floor and beam. Paseka unveiled an Amanar with serious consistency issues (with Russia, is there any other kind?)- if she can get it nailed down in the next month, however, she's going to London. Nabieva looks in shape, but isn't needed on bars and has the same horrific execution as ever on vault.

However, it's not all doom and gloom for Russia. There is no one performing bars right now like Komova and Mustafina- Mustafina in particular is hitting her full difficulty set, complete with Mustafina dismount, and making it look like an absolute cakewalk. Komova is not hitting her double double dismount with as much consistency, but that stupid half turn before it is looking better than it did at Worlds. In a perfect world, they will go 1-2 in the Olympic EF.

Mustafina is looking stronger on beam and floor than she did at Euros, and Komova hit a Patterson dismount in EF. It would be a mistake to count either of these girls out of taking an AA medal home, including the gold, especially if they get their Amanars back (which you just know they will).

My prediction for Team Russia, assuming injuries don't get in the way:

V: Komova, Mustafina, Paseka
UB: Grishina, Mustafina, Komova
BB: Grishina, Komova, Afanayseva/Mustafina
F: Grishina, Afanasyeva, Komova/Mustafina

Alternate: Inshina

Visas wrap-up

I apologize for being a day late and a dollar short on this recap- after a crazy week at work I'm more than ready to sit back and ponder the infinite mysteries of Martha Karolyi's brain!

Once the dust settled at Visas, the landscape of the American Olympic picture looked...well, largely the same.However, there were of course some dramatic moments, some commentating and broadcasting nonsense, and some off-camera insanity- here's what I learned from Visas, and what to watch for heading to the Olympic Trials:

1.) The more things change, the more they stay the same. From what I've seen around the gymternet, the common consensus of a Wieber/Raisman/Douglas/Maroney/Ross team stood the test of Visas. These five should be considered the frontrunners for tickets to London, and barring injuries more serious than Maroney's unfortunate concussion and broken nose, I would expect these five to be Martha's picks.

Wieber did defend her title, but it wasn't by much. Had Douglas not fallen off beam, she would be sitting in the silver medal position heading to Trials. On Day 2, Jordyn had a much stronger vault and a less shaky beam (although I thought the judges were way too generous on her connection bonuses on either side of her full twisting tuck). She put in another solid bars and floor set as well, giving her another 8 for 8 competition heading into Trials. However, she is in the somewhat unenviable "Shawn Johnson" slot- an undefeated senior season and reigning World Champion heading to an Olympic competition, and we all know how that turned out for her.

USA Podium Training Notes

USA Gymnastics has posted loads of video from today's podium training for US Nationals here, if you're looking for something/someone in particular. I'm going to hit a few highlights, but it will by no means be exhaustive.

The biggest buzz was of course Nastia back on bars, albeit heavily spotted by Valeri through her Pak and releases, but still knocking out a great stuck dismount towards the end of the session. Of course, whether or not she can hit it in competition and without spotting is an entirely other matter.

If she can, I'd be very nervous if my name was Kyla Ross or McKayla Maroney.

My personal gym highlights and lowlights: Part two- the vault

Vaulting has sparked a lot of debate in recent years among WAG fans and observers, mostly due of course to the Amanar- who has one? Who's getting one? Should it really have such a high value in the COP? After the recent injury to Aliya Mustafina, the debate has shifted somewhat to questions like is it worth the risk? Are coaches pushing their gymnasts to learn it too soon?

Whatever your thoughts on the Amanar, there's no denying that when it's performed well, it can be breathtaking to watch, which leads me into my personal vaulting highlights:

Cheng Fei, 2005 Worlds EF: W.O.W.

Just like the Australian commentator, the first time I saw this vault I think my mouth literally hung open in shock at how great it was. Cheng Fei was arguably never better in a major competition than she was during this EF, where she just about nailed this Amanar and the "Cheng".