London 2012: Vault

Of all the WAG apparatus, this event is the most cut and dry in terms of medal prospects- there are so few gymnasts training two vaults at this stage, there are hardly enough to make up a final.

A slight wrench has just been thrown into what should be the easiest gold medal to predict in all of WAG- McKayla Maroney reportedly has suffered a broken toe during her training, but during podium sessions today appeared mostly unaffected by the injury. If her health remains stable, she is the firm favorite for gold.

The other main contenders for vault are as follows:

Sandra Izbasa: The two time European champion is, funnily enough, more likely to medal on vault than floor, the apparatus she is best known for, and where she is the defending Olympic champion. Sandra threw her Cheng today in podium training, and even without it she has a powerful DTY and solid Mustafina. With her good execution and fairly even start values, she has a great shot at the podium.

Oksana Chusovitina: Gymnastics' grand dame is in what will probably be her last Olympics, and there's really not much left to say about her outstanding career. It would be wonderful to see her make the podium one last time.

Janine Berger: The first year German senior actually defeated Chuso at German Nationals this year, and has been throwing 6.3 and 6.0 vaults, which actually gives her a higher start value than Izbasa without her Cheng. Berger is definitely my dark horse pick for a vaulting medal, if she can hold her nerve in her first major international competition.

Valeria Maksyuta: Vaulting was what helped this experienced Israeli gymnast make the Olympics at the Test Event. She just missed out on a vaulting medal at Euros this year, and it would be great to see her make a final after all the drama with her simply qualifying to the Games!

London 2012: Floor

The list of Olympic floor champions contains some of the sport's all time greats: Korbut, Comaneci, Silivas, Milosovici, and Podkopayeva are just a couple of the illustrious names you'll find. The Europeans have completely owned this event at the Olympics, with Romania being the dominant power in recent years, winning 5 of the last 7 gold medals.

So, who are the major players this year?

First, we have the defending world champion, Ksenia Afanasyeva. If she can pull out another performance like her Tokyo finals masterclass, she should be well in the mix, but her health and fitness has seemed in question all season. Plus, of course, there is her frustrating habit of inconsistency across competitions. However, for my money there's almost no one out there who can match her combination of super difficult tumbling (double layout, whip to triple twist), great execution and complex choreo and dance.

If another Russian makes the finals, I would expect it to be Anastasia Grishina. Her presence and execution on floor, when she puts it all together, is simply superb. Remember this gem (when she was still a junior)?

A nagging leg injury may keep her from being at her best, but the Olympic final NEEDS this kind of class to balance out one of the other likely competitors.

This is, of course, Aly Raisman of the USA, who scored a ludicrous 15.8 on floor at the US Olympic Trials. Raisman has the highest difficulty score in the world presently at 6.5 (according to The All Around's recent rankings). That first pass is killer, but her presence, choreo, and "dance" elements are frankly abysmal- it's this lack of style, toepoint, extension, and, well, any kind of charisma, that gives American gymnastics a bad name. However, as we all know, Raiman hasn't missed a routine in ages, so she'll make the final. If the judges do their job, she shouldn't win gold, even with an advantage on difficulty. A medal though is by no means out of the question, but if she was the first American to win gold on floor, I for one will throw my TV out the window.

London 2012: The All Around

The all-around competition this Olympics has the potential to be one of the all-time classics- or if not quite that outstanding, at least a return to the multifaceted and deep competition we were treated to in 1996. 2008 was pretty much a head-to-head between Liukin and Johnson, 2004 was a yawner of a competition with perhaps the dullest AA champion of all time, and 2000 was marred by The Vault Controversy and The Karpenko Disaster, among other things.

This quad, for the first time since 2000, there are at least 7-8 gymnasts with a real shot of winning an AA medal, including the gold. Having this many viable medal contenders is going to make for a nail biting competition, where, just like in 1996, putting a single foot wrong could take you out of the medal hunt entirely.

So, who are the main players in this drama? Here's who I'm picturing as the top 8 AA qualifiers:

Yao Jinnan, China
Huang Qiushuang, China
Larisa Iordache, Romania
Sandra Izbasa, Romania
Viktoria Komova, Russia
Aliya Mustafina, Russia
Jordyn Wieber, USA
Gabrielle Douglas, USA


While the event finals will no doubt see lots of athletes from less prominent gymnastics nations, the AA will be dominated by the Big 4, as it was in 2008, when the top 8 finishers were all Big 4 athletes. This isn't to say that there won't be some great athletes on the floor from other countries, like Vanessa Ferrari, Kristina Vaculik, and Elisabeth Seitz- it's just that no one else has shown the difficulty and execution necessary to knock one of these contenders out of their spots... if they hit.

Russia and Romania select Olympic teams

Russia is, as expected, Mustafina, Komova, Grishina, Paseka and Afanasyeva.

This is a team with perhaps stronger individual hopes than team prospects, although if they all have a good day at the TF, they will be challenging for the top spot. Mustafina, Grishina and Komova alone are three of the best all-around gymnasts in the sport today. They have the skills and the difficulty, but the question with team Russia is always this; will they be able to put it all together when the moment comes? I certainly hope so.

As far as individual medals are concerned, Russia has the potential to dominate every apparatus but vault. Afanasyeva and Grishina should make floor finals, Mustafina and Komova bars, and a combination of Komova, Mustafina and Grishina on beam. The talent is certainly there for this to be a repeat of the 2000 event finals, where Russia won 3 out of the 4 golds on offer. Komova and Mustafina are also definitely threats for AA medals if they both upgrade to Amanars. Komova has been competing Amanars successfully in internal test events, and no one should put it past Mustafina to have one in her back pocket either.

Romania did throw a slight surprise into the mix with their team selection, taking Diana Chelaru instead of Raluca Haidu, along with the quartet of locks, Sandra Izbasa, Diana Bulimar, Larisa Iordache and Catalina Ponor. Haidu would have only been used on bars as the Romanian version of a bars specialist in the TF, and Chelaru is useable on bars and floor (and vault as a last resort because her form is eeeesh). Izbasa actually put together a decent bars set at the Romanian International Friendly, so theoretically either she or Chelaru could lead the team off on bars, followed by Bulimar and Iordache.

The individual hopes for this team are many and varied as well. Iordache should be considered the frontrunner for the AA if she throws the Amanar she's been training. Even without it, she's in the medal hunt. The girl is insanely consistent with massive difficulty; basically, she's ideal for this code and what it asks for. I find her an infinitely more palatable gold medal prospect than Wieber or Douglas- and how amazing would it be for Romania to end this quad on top, after all their turmoil and trials since 2004?

Izbasa is definitely a contender for a vault medal (though she'd need help from Maroney to win gold). Ponor, Izbasa and Iordache should all be in the floor final- stupid two per country rule. Any of them could win gold. Iordache and Ponor are certainly co-favorites for the beam gold, along with the Chinese duo of Jinnan and Lu.

As far as team prospects go, if Romania does indeed get an Amanar from Iordache, plus Izbasa's Mustafina (I have serious doubts about that Cheng seeing the competition floor, but it could happen) and a solid DTY from Ponor, plus their insanely good beam/floor rotation, they will be well positioned for a medal, possibly even gold if the USA or Russia slip up. Romania is expert at taking advantage of others' mistakes, and they have the talent and consistency to make it happen.

Let there be Romanian upgrades

As reported by The Couch Gymnast and others, the Romanian team has been working hard on some serious vaulting.

Sandra Izbasa is seen training a Cheng, and Larisa training an Amanar in this video:

I mean, awesome right? There are a few universal rules of gymnastics, and one of them is to never count Romania out in an Olympic year. Never, ever.

Ever.

PS Larisa Iordache should be the one to bet on in the AA, guys. Watch your back Jordyn.

European Qualifications

Well, what a shit show that was for Russia, and for Mustafina in particular. It's no secret that I'm rooting for Aliya to win gold in London, but today was not her finest hour by a long shot. 1 out of 3 events two months before the Olympics is concerning, but considering the last time she was at Europeans she blew out her knee, I wouldn't call it an apocalyptic moment. I'd certainly rather have her melt down today than in Olympic qualifications.

I am still completely convinced that she's got it in her, though, and while there are plenty of people calling this a sign of Dobre-itis (namely, how a major injury can take the spark out of a gymnast) I think that's way too early to call. Gym fans are so fickle (Aunt Joyce is one of the worst, tbh, though their commentary can be divine. See also their feelings towards Liukin, Nastia), that it doesn't shock me that a lot of people are taking this as a sign of doom.

Personally, I have faith in Aliya. This may prove to be misguided, but I sincerely hope not.

As far as those other Russians go, Grishina hit 3 for 4, which is about par for the course for her, and still managed to qualify 2nd in the unofficial all-around...so not an entirely disastrous day for her. Sidorova has proven herself a very steady beam worker, something Russia could really use, but imploded on floor. Paseka is entirely unremarkable, if you ask me, and Komova nailed bars but was wobble city on beam- better than Tokyo, but still not as good as her junior days.

Romania, on the other hand, rocked the house. Not a missed routine, and Iordache and Ponor were in especially stellar form. Iordache was the top all-around contender, breaking the 60 point margin, and killing it on floor and beam especially. If that girl can get herself an Amanar, I would probably put her at the top of my AA contender list, over any Russian and American you care to name. Even without one, her difficulty and consistency definitely makes her a podium contender. There's a spark to her gymnastics on every event that is a rare and wonderful quality.

Romania, unlike Russia, has dealt pretty well with their overall lack of depth. Bulimar has grown a lot since worlds in terms of her consistency, her bars routine and her steadiness on beam, making her, aside from vaulting, a pretty good Izbasa substitute. Izbasa only competed on vault in quals, which I think was a smart move. Ponor is the baddest most fabulous beam worker out there, if you ask me, and her value to this team is astronomical. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the team Romania took to Euros turns out to be their Olympic team. Chelaru at this stage brings way less to the table than Haidu, despite her international experience, and unless she can add a point's worth of execution to her bars routine in the next 2 months, she'll be the alternate.

Aside from these two teams, the highlight of these Euro quals for me was the return of Livchikova of Ukraine. Even though she's not eligible to head to the Olympics, her delightful floor routine and original combinations on beam make her one of my favorite gymnasts in the sport today, a reminder of how expressive and beautiful gymnastics can truly be. Thrilled that we'll be seeing her in floor finals!

Worlds teams, part 2

With China announcing their lineup for Tokyo today, we're just waiting on Romania and the USA to complete the big 4 teams.

The USA girls will be back for a round 2 of camps with Marta K next week, to finalize Worlds and Pan Ams selection. Bridget Sloan being around has got a lot of people buzzing about the possibility of her sneaking on to yet another major squad. History does have a tendency to repeat itself, and Sloan is a former World AA champ and a strong bars worker. Like Chellsie, she's not someone you'd count out of anything.

Both Romania and the US are alike in that so much of their selection buzz is surrounding finding someone- anyone- who can swing bars worth a damn in a World Championship. Ana Porgras and Amelia Racea have decent sets, but that third spot is just a nightmare for Romania.

I wouldn't be surprised if Gabriela Dragoi takes it: she has lots of competition experience and a good beam set that can be used in prelims if necessary.

Honestly, I really am pulling for Romania this year, but it'll take some serious screw-ups from Russia and the USA for them to win the team final. However, in terms of individual medals, they've got loads of opportunities. I'm particularly excited to see Izbasa and Ponor take another run at winning a Worlds' gold.

Wish list for 2011 Worlds

Sure, Worlds won't be here for a few months, and it still remains to be seen if they will be held, as scheduled, in Tokyo, but that hasn't stopped me thinking about what I'd like to see happen this year.

1. Lauren Mitchell and Diana Chelaru MUST have new floor music. I mean, COME ON girls. I can't take it anymore. Lauren was using the same music in Rotterdam that she had in Beijing, and Chelaru's had hers for seemingly forever as well. They're both such talented floor workers but I would love to see something different from both of them, especially the current World champion on floor. 
2. Sandra Izbasa: World gold medalist. Sandra's got European gold and Olympic gold, and I'd love to see her cap off what's been a great comeback year for her with a World title. With Mustafina out of the picture and Mitchell looking less than sharp this season, Izbasa has to be considered one of the major players for the floor title, even at this early stage, especially if she can clean up her landings on her final two passes OR even upgrade- I'd love to see a double layout from her. I think her biggest challengers will be from the American team, like Wieber (who, come to think of it, also really needs new floor music) or Bross, if she can put together a routine like she did in the 2010 Worlds AA.
3. A healthy Viktoria Komova. According to International Gymnast, Komova has gone to the same clinic in Munich where Mustafina had her knee operation to get an expert opinion on her ankle. If she does have an operation on it, I think it's safe to assume that her participation in Worlds will be limited at best, but in my fantasy world, she'll be healed and ready for the All-Around.
4. A healthy Rebecca Bross. We haven't seen much of Rebecca since Rotterdam, as she's also been recovering from injuries. The USA will definitely need her steadying presence with so many young guns in the mix this year. 
5. A clean team final. This is, most likely, a pipe dream. Rotterdam was full of falls (although in my opinion, 2003 was even more insane in the falling department) and the competition's most consistent gymnast won't be in Tokyo. The Russian camp is, I'm sure, in full-on panic mode about how to work around the absence of Mustafina and the possible absence of Komova, and it remains to be seen how they'll cope. You can never really count on the Chinese to put together a clean team performance, despite their buckets of talent. The Romanians were largely clean in Rotterdam (barring Izbasa's disaster in the floor final) but Porgras's condition so far this season has been pretty shaky. This leaves the Americans out of the big four, and they too are a bit of a question mark. They had a last-minute injury in Rotterdam as well as a total meltdown from Mattie Larson, but their depth has increased quite a bit this season (except on bars). I think the US Nationals will be a very interesting competition (Sacramone back on floor! Johnson back in competition! All kinds of baby Americans with Amanars and terrible floor choreography!) and will give us quite a bit more information about the strengths and weaknesses of this team going into Worlds.

My personal gym highlights and lowlights: Part four- floor

I saved floor for last, because I knew it was going to be a pretty epic list of routines. I don't know if I can pick a favorite piece of apparatus, but I think there are more routines on floor that I absolutely LOVE than on any other piece. Conversely, of course, since I have fairly high expectations for what makes a great routine, there are a lot of routines that drive me NUTS on floor, due to crappy choreography, lack of originality, bad music, etc. etc. etc.

Carly Patterson, 2004 Olympic TF

There was not a single American floor routine at Athens that I liked. Cheesy choreo (remember Kupets?), lame music (Carly in particular), uninspired dance...it was a hot mess. Carly's, however, I find particularly egregious, since she was the AA champion that year. The T-rex arms at 1:15 and 1:51 just make me want to shriek.

My personal gym highlights and lowlights: Part two- the vault

Vaulting has sparked a lot of debate in recent years among WAG fans and observers, mostly due of course to the Amanar- who has one? Who's getting one? Should it really have such a high value in the COP? After the recent injury to Aliya Mustafina, the debate has shifted somewhat to questions like is it worth the risk? Are coaches pushing their gymnasts to learn it too soon?

Whatever your thoughts on the Amanar, there's no denying that when it's performed well, it can be breathtaking to watch, which leads me into my personal vaulting highlights:

Cheng Fei, 2005 Worlds EF: W.O.W.

Just like the Australian commentator, the first time I saw this vault I think my mouth literally hung open in shock at how great it was. Cheng Fei was arguably never better in a major competition than she was during this EF, where she just about nailed this Amanar and the "Cheng".