Rumors of Romania's demise have apparently been greatly exaggerated

Hooray, but please don't toy with my emotions anymore, Belu and Bitang! I can't take it! Let this be the final word!

However, it does appear that another AA hope, this time Yao Jinnan of China, is also struggling with injuries. She had a nasty fall on vault that took her out of the Chinese Nationals this year, and arrived in podium training with a wrapped thigh, was spotted quite heavily by her coaches, and was lacking her usual sharpness. It does not appear that they have called in a replacement athlete as of yet.

Yao is China's best AA hope this games, and it would be a real shame if she wasn't able to perform at her peak. She is one of China's most consistent gymnasts as well, and her steadiness and focus would be greatly missed in the team final should she be pulled out. I can't help but think that if Jiang Yuyuan had been selected as China's 5th team member, they'd be in better shape in terms of covering every apparatus in qualifying.

Iordache injured

Well, this sucks.

Larisa Iordache is reportedly out of the all-around after contracting fasciitis in her left foot. Romania is currently doing their podium training, so it remains to be seen how she performs and what she'll be able to contribute on in team finals- probably bars and possibly beam.

This is a serious blow to Romania's podium hopes, not to mention Iordache's excellent chances of medaling in the All-Around. What a shame to see such an amazing young athlete get so far to an Olympic dream only to fall short at the closest hurdle.

It's not all doom and gloom for the Romanians, however. Diana Bulimar will now most likely be up on floor in the TF, and her contributions on bars and beam will become even more important. Izbasa threw a Cheng vault in podium training (I'm sorry I doubted you, Sandra!), Catalina threw a full-twisting double layout, and Chelaru an Amanar timer. They've still got some tricks up their sleeves.

Basically, remember this- never, ever count Romania out of winning a medal at the Olympic Games. Many others have (cough cough USA in 2004) to their peril and shame.

London 2012: Beam

More so than any apparatus, the lineup for the beam final could go a variety of different ways, simply because it is the most unpredictable. Depending on what happens in prelims, we could see a number of different lineups, especially from nations with a couple of viable candidates.

The one nation whose lineup is essentially locked is Romania. Larisa Iordache and Catalina Ponor, for my money, are the two gymnasts most likely to take gold because they combine huge difficulty with unshakable consistency. Ponor in particular has been an absolute beast on beam since her return, and I'm picturing her just pipping her teammate for the gold, especially if she pulls out her full twisting double dismount.

I've always been a huge Catalina fan, and her comeback has been sheer joy to watch- if she was to cap it off to a return to the top of the podium, it would be a fitting climax. Iordache is certainly capable of reaching the top of the podium as well- she's got a massive D score, and if she can put all her connections together, she'll be very tough to top.

China's lineup, on the other hand, is much more up in the air. They should easily qualify 2 competitors to the final, but who they are will completely depend on quals. Sui Lu should be considered a lock, but she has been more inconsistent on beam than on floor. Her complete and utter meltdown at the Test Event certainly shook up the perception that she got her shit together in Tokyo, but she is the defending World Champion, with a very difficult routine when she gets it right.

Deng Linlin is China's most consistent performer- as a multiple World medalist, she's earned her beam stripes, and is capable of scoring in the low 15s. She could easily be the second Chinese finalist, but she'll have to battle it out with Yao Jinnan, who was 2nd in Tokyo, but is a bit more inconsistent. She won't have forgotten that she could have been a World AA gold medalist had she not fallen off beam. It's also possible that Quishuang will sneak in there, but her routine is really reliant on connection bonuses that she doesn't always complete, and she'd need a bit of help from her teammates to make the final.

London 2012: Floor

The list of Olympic floor champions contains some of the sport's all time greats: Korbut, Comaneci, Silivas, Milosovici, and Podkopayeva are just a couple of the illustrious names you'll find. The Europeans have completely owned this event at the Olympics, with Romania being the dominant power in recent years, winning 5 of the last 7 gold medals.

So, who are the major players this year?

First, we have the defending world champion, Ksenia Afanasyeva. If she can pull out another performance like her Tokyo finals masterclass, she should be well in the mix, but her health and fitness has seemed in question all season. Plus, of course, there is her frustrating habit of inconsistency across competitions. However, for my money there's almost no one out there who can match her combination of super difficult tumbling (double layout, whip to triple twist), great execution and complex choreo and dance.

If another Russian makes the finals, I would expect it to be Anastasia Grishina. Her presence and execution on floor, when she puts it all together, is simply superb. Remember this gem (when she was still a junior)?

A nagging leg injury may keep her from being at her best, but the Olympic final NEEDS this kind of class to balance out one of the other likely competitors.

This is, of course, Aly Raisman of the USA, who scored a ludicrous 15.8 on floor at the US Olympic Trials. Raisman has the highest difficulty score in the world presently at 6.5 (according to The All Around's recent rankings). That first pass is killer, but her presence, choreo, and "dance" elements are frankly abysmal- it's this lack of style, toepoint, extension, and, well, any kind of charisma, that gives American gymnastics a bad name. However, as we all know, Raiman hasn't missed a routine in ages, so she'll make the final. If the judges do their job, she shouldn't win gold, even with an advantage on difficulty. A medal though is by no means out of the question, but if she was the first American to win gold on floor, I for one will throw my TV out the window.

London 2012: The All Around

The all-around competition this Olympics has the potential to be one of the all-time classics- or if not quite that outstanding, at least a return to the multifaceted and deep competition we were treated to in 1996. 2008 was pretty much a head-to-head between Liukin and Johnson, 2004 was a yawner of a competition with perhaps the dullest AA champion of all time, and 2000 was marred by The Vault Controversy and The Karpenko Disaster, among other things.

This quad, for the first time since 2000, there are at least 7-8 gymnasts with a real shot of winning an AA medal, including the gold. Having this many viable medal contenders is going to make for a nail biting competition, where, just like in 1996, putting a single foot wrong could take you out of the medal hunt entirely.

So, who are the main players in this drama? Here's who I'm picturing as the top 8 AA qualifiers:

Yao Jinnan, China
Huang Qiushuang, China
Larisa Iordache, Romania
Sandra Izbasa, Romania
Viktoria Komova, Russia
Aliya Mustafina, Russia
Jordyn Wieber, USA
Gabrielle Douglas, USA


While the event finals will no doubt see lots of athletes from less prominent gymnastics nations, the AA will be dominated by the Big 4, as it was in 2008, when the top 8 finishers were all Big 4 athletes. This isn't to say that there won't be some great athletes on the floor from other countries, like Vanessa Ferrari, Kristina Vaculik, and Elisabeth Seitz- it's just that no one else has shown the difficulty and execution necessary to knock one of these contenders out of their spots... if they hit.

Russia and Romania select Olympic teams

Russia is, as expected, Mustafina, Komova, Grishina, Paseka and Afanasyeva.

This is a team with perhaps stronger individual hopes than team prospects, although if they all have a good day at the TF, they will be challenging for the top spot. Mustafina, Grishina and Komova alone are three of the best all-around gymnasts in the sport today. They have the skills and the difficulty, but the question with team Russia is always this; will they be able to put it all together when the moment comes? I certainly hope so.

As far as individual medals are concerned, Russia has the potential to dominate every apparatus but vault. Afanasyeva and Grishina should make floor finals, Mustafina and Komova bars, and a combination of Komova, Mustafina and Grishina on beam. The talent is certainly there for this to be a repeat of the 2000 event finals, where Russia won 3 out of the 4 golds on offer. Komova and Mustafina are also definitely threats for AA medals if they both upgrade to Amanars. Komova has been competing Amanars successfully in internal test events, and no one should put it past Mustafina to have one in her back pocket either.

Romania did throw a slight surprise into the mix with their team selection, taking Diana Chelaru instead of Raluca Haidu, along with the quartet of locks, Sandra Izbasa, Diana Bulimar, Larisa Iordache and Catalina Ponor. Haidu would have only been used on bars as the Romanian version of a bars specialist in the TF, and Chelaru is useable on bars and floor (and vault as a last resort because her form is eeeesh). Izbasa actually put together a decent bars set at the Romanian International Friendly, so theoretically either she or Chelaru could lead the team off on bars, followed by Bulimar and Iordache.

The individual hopes for this team are many and varied as well. Iordache should be considered the frontrunner for the AA if she throws the Amanar she's been training. Even without it, she's in the medal hunt. The girl is insanely consistent with massive difficulty; basically, she's ideal for this code and what it asks for. I find her an infinitely more palatable gold medal prospect than Wieber or Douglas- and how amazing would it be for Romania to end this quad on top, after all their turmoil and trials since 2004?

Izbasa is definitely a contender for a vault medal (though she'd need help from Maroney to win gold). Ponor, Izbasa and Iordache should all be in the floor final- stupid two per country rule. Any of them could win gold. Iordache and Ponor are certainly co-favorites for the beam gold, along with the Chinese duo of Jinnan and Lu.

As far as team prospects go, if Romania does indeed get an Amanar from Iordache, plus Izbasa's Mustafina (I have serious doubts about that Cheng seeing the competition floor, but it could happen) and a solid DTY from Ponor, plus their insanely good beam/floor rotation, they will be well positioned for a medal, possibly even gold if the USA or Russia slip up. Romania is expert at taking advantage of others' mistakes, and they have the talent and consistency to make it happen.

Let there be Romanian upgrades

As reported by The Couch Gymnast and others, the Romanian team has been working hard on some serious vaulting.

Sandra Izbasa is seen training a Cheng, and Larisa training an Amanar in this video:

I mean, awesome right? There are a few universal rules of gymnastics, and one of them is to never count Romania out in an Olympic year. Never, ever.

Ever.

PS Larisa Iordache should be the one to bet on in the AA, guys. Watch your back Jordyn.

Suck it, haters

This is how you recover from a bad meet.

But congrats to Romania! A well-deserved win, and a thriller of a competition.

European Qualifications

Well, what a shit show that was for Russia, and for Mustafina in particular. It's no secret that I'm rooting for Aliya to win gold in London, but today was not her finest hour by a long shot. 1 out of 3 events two months before the Olympics is concerning, but considering the last time she was at Europeans she blew out her knee, I wouldn't call it an apocalyptic moment. I'd certainly rather have her melt down today than in Olympic qualifications.

I am still completely convinced that she's got it in her, though, and while there are plenty of people calling this a sign of Dobre-itis (namely, how a major injury can take the spark out of a gymnast) I think that's way too early to call. Gym fans are so fickle (Aunt Joyce is one of the worst, tbh, though their commentary can be divine. See also their feelings towards Liukin, Nastia), that it doesn't shock me that a lot of people are taking this as a sign of doom.

Personally, I have faith in Aliya. This may prove to be misguided, but I sincerely hope not.

As far as those other Russians go, Grishina hit 3 for 4, which is about par for the course for her, and still managed to qualify 2nd in the unofficial all-around...so not an entirely disastrous day for her. Sidorova has proven herself a very steady beam worker, something Russia could really use, but imploded on floor. Paseka is entirely unremarkable, if you ask me, and Komova nailed bars but was wobble city on beam- better than Tokyo, but still not as good as her junior days.

Romania, on the other hand, rocked the house. Not a missed routine, and Iordache and Ponor were in especially stellar form. Iordache was the top all-around contender, breaking the 60 point margin, and killing it on floor and beam especially. If that girl can get herself an Amanar, I would probably put her at the top of my AA contender list, over any Russian and American you care to name. Even without one, her difficulty and consistency definitely makes her a podium contender. There's a spark to her gymnastics on every event that is a rare and wonderful quality.

Romania, unlike Russia, has dealt pretty well with their overall lack of depth. Bulimar has grown a lot since worlds in terms of her consistency, her bars routine and her steadiness on beam, making her, aside from vaulting, a pretty good Izbasa substitute. Izbasa only competed on vault in quals, which I think was a smart move. Ponor is the baddest most fabulous beam worker out there, if you ask me, and her value to this team is astronomical. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the team Romania took to Euros turns out to be their Olympic team. Chelaru at this stage brings way less to the table than Haidu, despite her international experience, and unless she can add a point's worth of execution to her bars routine in the next 2 months, she'll be the alternate.

Aside from these two teams, the highlight of these Euro quals for me was the return of Livchikova of Ukraine. Even though she's not eligible to head to the Olympics, her delightful floor routine and original combinations on beam make her one of my favorite gymnasts in the sport today, a reminder of how expressive and beautiful gymnastics can truly be. Thrilled that we'll be seeing her in floor finals!

Well, holy crap

Just when you think the USA has got this thing wrapped up, Alicia Sacramone goes down with an Achilles injury.

This is devestating for Team USA for a couple of reasons. In a group of so many young ones, Alicia was the leader, an almost unofficial coach, who helped support these babies psychologically in the pressure-cooker atmosphere of Worlds. Without her, there IS no natural leader on the squad.

Secondly, with Anna Li out too, USA has to go up with 5 gymnasts, while everyone else has 6. The pre-lims lineup, courtesy of Universal Sports, is as follows:


Vault: Vega, Douglas, Raisman, Wieber, Maroney.
Uneven bars: Raisman, Maroney, Vega, Wieber, Douglas.
Balance beam: Maroney, Vega, Raisman, Wieber, Douglas.
Floor exercise: Douglas, Vega, Wieber, Maroney, Raisman.

Marta is now looking pretty smart to have named Vega as an alternate, and an idiot for working her athletes to the bone in training. Everything's covered here, but pre-lims is going to be FAR more tenuous than USA would have liked. I'm not quite so worried about finals, because they're still a good team on paper when it's 3 up, 3 count, but having to stick Raisman on bars and Maroney on beam is far from ideal. I'd assume their finals lineup will look something like:

Vault: Raisman/Douglas, Wieber, Maroney
Bars: Vega, Douglas, Wieber
Beam: Vega/Douglas, Wieber, Raisman
Floor: Douglas/Maroney, Wieber, Raisman

Obviously a couple of these spots will be determined by prelims, but that's the general plan. Still not a bad team, but missing Sacramone does shrink their overall start values on vault, beam and floor.

I still think USA could win this, but it's not going to be nearly as easy or clear-cut as before. China and Romania now are looking like slightly stronger than just an outside chance. I never, EVER trust China to hit in a finals, as I've been burned many times before, but I guess there is a first time for everything, right?

Romania has been looking quite steady in training, according to reports, and while they don't have anything in the same difficulty universe on bars as China, and they have a serious vault deficit to the USA, they could really benefit from their trademark reliability in this scenario.

Russia has been such a bunch of head-casing nightmares in training that they could either challenge for the gold or end up in 8th. It completely depends on what team shows up to play on the game day. Alexandrov is probably popping heartburn meds like no other these days.

One thing is for sure- this is going to be a seriously interesting couple of days in the gymnastics world.

Worlds teams, part 2

With China announcing their lineup for Tokyo today, we're just waiting on Romania and the USA to complete the big 4 teams.

The USA girls will be back for a round 2 of camps with Marta K next week, to finalize Worlds and Pan Ams selection. Bridget Sloan being around has got a lot of people buzzing about the possibility of her sneaking on to yet another major squad. History does have a tendency to repeat itself, and Sloan is a former World AA champ and a strong bars worker. Like Chellsie, she's not someone you'd count out of anything.

Both Romania and the US are alike in that so much of their selection buzz is surrounding finding someone- anyone- who can swing bars worth a damn in a World Championship. Ana Porgras and Amelia Racea have decent sets, but that third spot is just a nightmare for Romania.

I wouldn't be surprised if Gabriela Dragoi takes it: she has lots of competition experience and a good beam set that can be used in prelims if necessary.

Honestly, I really am pulling for Romania this year, but it'll take some serious screw-ups from Russia and the USA for them to win the team final. However, in terms of individual medals, they've got loads of opportunities. I'm particularly excited to see Izbasa and Ponor take another run at winning a Worlds' gold.

Iordache news

Via The Couch Gymnast: LOOK at that bars score! The Romanians should cover her in bubble wrap at this point.

I couldn't find any videos of this competition just yet, but hopefully some will appear on YouTube soon.